Iran’s insistence on the lifting of sanctions and the withdrawal of US troops from negotiations have increased tensions. The odds of ending the war by April 7 have dropped to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
The April 7 market is under pressure, dropping 2 points today. Traders are facing disagreements in negotiations. The April 15 market fell again, now at 18% YES from 20% yesterday. However, the market on April 30 rose 4 points to 38% YES, indicating that traders expect a change at the end of April.
Stop-fire markets are active, with volume at $1,365,780 in USDC in the last 24 hours. It takes $15K to move the April 7 default by 5 points. The most notable move was a 2-point drop at 8:13 AM, possibly due to today’s news.
Strong positions from both sides indicate little chance of a quick resolution. The April 7 market reflects this with a 12x payout per YES share at 8¢ if it closes. The April 30 market shows more optimism, and shows that traders are expected to do well during that period.
Look at the following statements by Secretary of State Rubio and anything from Oman or Qatar. Changes in speech or background dialogue cues can be very distracting.
Markets Affected
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