The US has confirmed the rescue mission after Iran claimed it shot down a US warplane. The odds of US troops entering Iran as of April 30 jumped to 85.5% YES, from 60% the previous day.
Businessmen reacted quickly. The April 30 market it rose 25.5 points, reflecting increased expectations of US action. The December 31 market it went up again, now at 87.5% YES, from 70%.
The market’s daily turnover hit $4.26M in USDC. The depth of the order book is important, with $998K needed to move the April 30 price by five points, indicating strong institutional interest. The biggest move in the last 24 hours was a 4-point rise at 2:14 PM, probably from a larger order.
Definite losses indicate vulnerability and increase the likelihood of using ground forces. With the April 30 odds at 86% YES, the share pays $1 if US troops enter Iran by then—a return of 1.16x. This bet is dependent on a particular rise or the certainty of the groundwork.
Watch for any comments from Trump, Hegseth, or CENTCOM, and any actions by the DRM War Powers, as this may affect the market.
Markets Affected
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