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- The Fed’s minutes showed officials arguing over possible rate cuts and possible hikes, with inflation and the Iran war pulling separate points.
- Bitcoin is hovering around $71,000, and analysts are divided between a recovery if the risk appetite improves and another rebound if macro pressure returns.
The Federal Reserve Board recent moments they did not give the market a clean signal. Some officials said further rate cuts may still be needed later this year if growth slows. Some argued that a higher adjustment would be necessary if inflation did not exceed the limit, especially if rising electricity prices continued in the economy.
The fund left rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in March, with expectations also pointing to a mid-year contraction of 3.4%, which would mean one cut this year rather than an immediate slowdown.
Prices, oil and macro returns
This information is required Bitcoin because the brand is selling it more like a serious product than a good safe place. It rose and moved higher after the end of the two-week US-Iran talks, but the deal appears to be fragile and oil is still above pre-war levels. Traders are now only buying about a one-in-four chance of a Fed rate cut by the end of the year, after short-term bets on tapering.
The $75,000 question
For the next four weeks, the immediate development challenge is straightforward. If the ceasefire continues, oil remains stable and commodity prices continue to strengthen confidence in the Fed’s future tapering, Bitcoin could expand from its current $71,000 level.
The case also gets support from reformed institutions, with Bitcoin ETFs to take nearly $471 million on April 6, the strongest daily entry since late February. Long-time bulls like Bernstein have argued that Bitcoin may have already gained ground because institutional ownership reshapes the market.
The case for the bearish case is very difficult, honestly. If Iran stops fighting, oil rises again and hopes of cutting prices disappear, Bitcoin could quickly lose momentum. Careful researchers are considering whether to take another $75,000 for sure. Without this, the market still looks vulnerable to other problems rather than a clean break.
