A new briefing from the Bitcoin Policy Institute notes that recent developments in computing are increasing the time when Bitcoin’s cryptography may face credible threats, emphasizing that developers are already preparing solutions.
In his report, State of Play: Quantum Computing and Bitcoin’s Path ForwardBitcoin Policy Institute point to two research papers released on March 31 by Google and the California Institute of Technology that revise long-held assumptions about the computing power required to crack Bitcoin encryption.
For years, estimates suggested that an attacker would need about 10 million qubits to use Shor’s algorithm and break Bitcoin’s security. According to the Bitcoin Policy Institute’s analysis of Google’s findings, this space can be reduced to at least 500,000 qubits. Another paper linking Caltech and the University of California, Berkeley it shows that special quantum machines can lower that requirement, to between 10,000 and 26,000 qubits.
The Bitcoin Policy Institute notes that the two papers take different approaches—one emphasizes the use of software and the other hardware—but arrive at the same conclusion: the need to support quantum attacks is diminishing.
Despite this change, the organization emphasizes that Bitcoin is not in immediate danger. Modern quantum machines remain below the standards described in this study. Google’s most advanced processor, Willow, works with more than 100 qubits, leaving a wide gap between theory and practical capabilities.
However, the Bitcoin Policy Institute places the findings as a sign that planning must continue. The report highlights ongoing efforts within the Bitcoin developer community to address long-standing risks associated with quantum computing.
At the heart of this project is the BIP-360, a an idea that the Bitcoin Policy Institute describes as one of the most active developments in the history of the protocol. The idea suggests a new address structure that prevents public keys from being revealed during transactions, removing a major vulnerability that quantum attackers can exploit.
The Bitcoin Policy Institute points to a testnet launched in March that has already attracted more than 50 miners and more than 100 cryptographers. The level of participation, the group argues, shows a strong connection between the skill providers.
The report also confirms that Bitcoin’s existing infrastructure provides flexibility. Taproot’s upgrade, which was launched in 2021, includes features that support seamless authentication methods and the use of other methods.
Beyond the Bitcoin ecosystem, the Bitcoin Policy Institute places this issue within a broader context. The National Institute of Standards and Technology finalized post-quantum cryptographic principles in 2024, offering tools that can be converted into Bitcoin. Government agencies have been given a 2035 deadline to change anti-trafficking systems, while Google has set an internal target of 2029.
The structure of Bitcoin is complex
The Bitcoin Policy Institute emphasizes that Bitcoin’s design poses some challenges. Unlike governments or corporations, networks cannot mandate upgrades. Any change should be done through cooperation between the participants.
Even so, the report points to past promotions as evidence that a merger is possible. With more security, the Bitcoin Policy Institute says, incentives are shared throughout the network, as all stakeholders rely on maintaining integrity.
The report concludes that the quantum risk is not imminent, but its time is increasing. In the opinion of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, the technical solutions have already started, and the ideas are now changing how the network reaches consensus on the deployment.
Yesterday, a new survey an idea from StarkWare’s Avihu Levy introduced “Quantum Safe Bitcoin” (QSB), a scheme designed to protect Bitcoin transactions from quantum attacks in the future without the need to change the central protocol of the Internet.
This method switches security from vulnerable ECDSA signatures to hash-based logic, aiming to avoid threats like Shor’s algorithm while matching the existing Bitcoin system.
