Nvidia stock falls below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year

Shares of Nvidia fell below the 200-day moving average for 200 days after the GTC event this week failed to revive the stock, as CEO Jensen Huang predicted that the company’s Blackwell and Rubin lines could help drive $1 trillion in data center investment until 2027.

Nvidia was down about 3.5% on the day, trading near $172 and approaching the important level of support near $170 that has been happening since September 2025. The 200-day average is sitting near $178, and Nvidia is on pace to close below that level today, indicating a significant change in trends. A firm close below would signal a technical breakdown after the longest performance since recovering in May 2025 following a tariff-driven selloff.

The weakness is not limited to Nvidia. Markets have been in turmoil for weeks due to the country’s volatility and changing financial sentiment. The US war with Israel and Iran has escalated, with Brent recently trading above $105 a barrel and US oil close to $99, while US oil prices have risen more than 30% since the war began.

That energy shock is feeding fears of inflation at a bad time. US consumer prices rose 0.3% in February from the previous month and 2.4% from a year ago, while producer prices rose 0.7% in February, the largest monthly increase in seven months.

The Fed kept rates steady on March 18 and warned that the economic outlook was uncertain, with particular focus on developments in the Middle East. Interest rate futures now show that traders see little opportunity before mid-2027.

This background has had a significant impact on equity. The S&P 500 is nearing 6,495 on Friday, down about 7% since early February, while the Nasdaq Composite is near 21,535, down about 9% from its February high. Both indexes fell again on Friday as oil rose and investors pulled back.