UAE’s Reem Al-Hashimy says Iran has deployed 2,800 missiles and drones in 40 days, while Polymarket’s agreement on Iran’s war against other countries by April 30 will be on
Market performance
The Iranian market at 100% YES it leaves no room for traders to post. The market is already pricing in the certainty of a war with Iran on April 30, so Al-Hashimy’s statement confirms what the deal is showing rather than moving.
The the market of countries that are engaged in military action against Iran is at 0.7% YES, down from 3% a week ago. USDC volume at $58, and only $273 is needed to move the price 5 points. The contract is so small that the small business can easily change. Traders have the lowest prices for direct returns to Iran until April 30.
Why is it important?
Al-Hashimy’s claim of 2,800 missiles and drones over 40 days confirms the scale of Iran’s aggression in a way that will affect how the Gulf states and their allies calculate their response. But with no real signs of a military response from other countries, the market returns returns close to zero. The UAE and its allies appear to be focusing on security rather than direct confrontation with Iran.
For you to see
Any announcements from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) or statements by Donald Trump or Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan could change the return market quickly due to its low volatility. A change in speech from retention to elevation may be the cause.
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