The White House says it has succeeded in Operation Epic Fury, the market doubting the April 30 deadline

The White House says all of the objectives of Operation Epic Fury have been met, indicating that Iran has been defeated. Market predictions of an end to military operations by April 30 have settled 15.5% YES, down from 32% yesterday.

Market performance

The April 30 fire stop market has halved, perhaps due to skepticism about what the government is saying and how Iran is doing. As the end of the war ends in nine days, traders are having very low prices. The Iran’s regime is falling by April 30 market stays on 0.9% YES, when a June 30 market and to 8.5%meaning that traders see some potential for long-term volatility but almost none in the near term.

Why is it important?

White House news and events on the ground are very different. Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, and the IRGC has recovered a large portion of its missile arsenal. Management appears to be claiming success without a formal agreement, a framing that the market is strongly rejecting at current prices.

For you to see

The trading volume in the fire stop market is $ 68,607 in real USDC, with $ 4,074 that the depth of the book should move prices by five points – a minimum amount. The biggest price change was a 5-point increase at 6:59 PM. Markets in the fall of authority indicate a lower USDC sell-off, consistent with less certainty in the long-term trend. Keep an eye out for CENTCOM briefings or anything from Oman or Qatar. Changes in working languages ​​or relaunched negotiations can move these markets.

A YES shares on 16¢ pays $1 if terminated, a 6.25x return. Betting YES here means betting on diplomatic progress within nine days.

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