Grayscale has declared Bitcoin’s (BTC) in a bear market, challenging the economy below $65,000 to $70,000. The call contradicts a broader consensus that it will be lower later in 2026.
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said that buyers will soon return to breakeven after Bitcoin rose more than 20% from its February 5 low near $63,000.
The Grayscale On-Chain Case for Bitcoin Down
Grayscale’s concept is based on a metric called “derend price”, which calculates the price of an asset based on the movement of the underlying asset. It works as a proxy for the market aggregate breakeven level.
For the amount that changed in the last 1 to 3 months, Grayscale estimates the value found to be about $74,000. That level is below current priceleaving a group of new buyers at leisure.
“If the price of Bitcoin rises significantly in the coming days, buyers may soon enter a positive PnL, which may be a sign to register the first phase of the bull market,” Pandl said.
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Bitcoin remains below its October peak, but Grayscale is contradicting the February reversal that was already made below. Going above and beyond would push recent buyers to a better location. The company is considering a reversal of its value based on the conditions associated with the earlier transactions.
“Bitcoin’s price is still well below the October Highs, but many buyers will soon return to breakeven-maybe a sign that Bitcoin has put a solid market down in the $65,000 to $70,000 range,” the analysis reads.
Why Some Analysts Still See Bitcoin Low
Not every researcher agrees that evil has passed. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA researcher, told BeInCrypto his case it will arrive in October 2026 in orbit. In the first place, he added, the need to accept beyond what happened in the middle ages.
“Bitcoin may drop soon, early May.” But in order for that to happen, there has to be some kind of significant subordination below what we already expect to see in the middle ages,” he said.
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Joao Wedson, CEO of on-chain analytics company Alphractalfalls into the same camp, expecting to drop in late September or early October 2026.
CryptoQuant you have noticed a large window from June to December 2026, from September to November if possible. This diversity offers more opportunities than the close Grayscale thesis allows.
The split leaves traders weighing two results. Perhaps February’s trend is showing a lower low and current buyers are now at the beginning of a new bull, or Bitcoin one leg down already a steady recovery begins later in 2026.
A note Grayscale Research Calls Bitcoin Down, Sees Early Signs of Bull Market appeared for the first time BeInCrypto.
