The New York Post reports that the second round of US-Iran peace talks could begin on Friday. The Polymarket ceasefire-by-April-30 agreement is in place
The reported talks follow a long-term ceasefire agreed on April 8 after the US and Israel attacked Iran. The April 30 market has fluctuated significantly, and the biggest move was a 5-point rise at 6:59 PM yesterday. With just 9 days left until the deadline, traders are pricing in diplomatic issues and tight deadlines.
The volume in the fire stop market is $68,607 in USDC that is traded daily. But the book is thin: it only takes $4,074 to move the price by 5 percent. A few large trades can cause problems. The 5-point increase is consistent with this trend, although it also shows that some traders are betting on diplomatic progress.
The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and Iran has rejected previous US proposals. The cease-fire market serves as a project of diplomatic progress. Any definitive reconciliation with Oman or Qatar could quickly change the tension.
Watch announcements from Secretary of State Rubio or Secretary of Defense Hegseth. A specified location or confirmed date for the interview would be a clear sign of progress. Until then, expect continued volatility at the current price.
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