Jerome Powell will deliver his final press conference at the FOMC on Wednesday, ending eight years at the top of the Federal Reserve with interest rates frozen at 3.50 to 3.75 percent and inflation back at 3.3%.
His successor, Kevin Warsh, a Trump appointee, steps into a corner office filled with unfinished business, oil-driven CPI inflation, a $6.7 trillion deficit, and a crypto market that learned to live and die with Fed money.
Powell vs. Yellen: The Legacy Gap
Janet Yellen gave Powell calm water in February 2018. Rates remained close to 1.5%, the headline inflation embraced the 2% target, and the monetary policy was already reduced by design.
Powell took the role as a former lawyer and business executive, not an economist. They took advantage of the ongoing soft slide and tried to keep it moving slowly into 2018 before the trade war forced a pivot.
Four years of Yellen They did not cause recession and almost no surprises. Powell’s eight years included a pandemic shutdown, the largest shutdown in history, the worst recession since 1981, and the failure of three banks within ten days.
Achievements: From Pandemic Rescue to Near-Soft Landing
Powell’s defenders point to March 2020 as his most powerful moment. The Fed cut rates to zero, resumed purchases, and stopped nine emergency lending facilities in less than three weeks.
“Powell pushed back a bit of hawkish resistance to the emergency rate cuts that were cut on March 15, 2020,” lighting fixtures economist Nick Timiraos.
That liquid wave saved the markets and arguably saved the first cycle of Bitcoin. Bitcoin (BTC) rose from around $5,000 in March 2020 to a November 2021 peak of over $69,000, following the expansion of the Fed bank about $9 trillion.
The second redemption came later. Powell has run very hard since then Paul Volckertaking the policy rate from zero to 5.5% without triggering a recession or a fall in employment.
By the end of 2024 too he redefined the legal tone for digital finance. At the DealBook Summit, Powell called Bitcoin “like gold, so it’s real,” a statement that helped push BTC above $103,000 during the session.
“It’s like gold itself. People aren’t using it as a means of payment, or as a store of value. It’s very volatile. It’s not a race for the dollar, it’s a real race for gold,” Powell said.
Losses: The Great Depression and Bank Risk
The “temporary” call for 2021 still defines criticism. Powell waited until March 2022 to start moving as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) seals passed 7%the delay Warsh called “politically incorrect.”
“When you let inflation work its way into the economy, it’s very expensive and difficult to bring it down, so the fatal mistake that happened four or five years ago is the legacy we’re dealing with… he said Kevin Warsh, testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, April 21
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Starting late he forced 11 trips within 16 months. The rush caught regional lenders off guard, including Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic all failed in March 2023 after long-term Treasuries losses.
“JAYPOW (Jerome Powell) must have broken the US banks. 2008 it was the banks of bad loans – aka subprime. 2023 it was the banks of the long term like UST and MBS??? he said Arthur Hayes in a March 10, 2023 post.
Miscommunication exacerbated the damage. Future guidance was targeted for 2022 and 2023, and business confidence in the Summary of Economic Projections fell to multi-year lows.
Political pressure followed in 2025, when the Department of Justice was opened later dropped the Powell survey which briefly halted Warsh’s confirmation calendar.
What’s in Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Kevin Warsh’s Bag?
Warsh takes on a Fed legacy that has fared better than markets expected. Purpose of federal funds 3.50 to 3.75% for the third straight meeting, and the March dot plot still pencils in only one path for 2026 and one for 2027.
Inflation is going in the wrong direction. CPI jumped to 3.3% in March from 2.4% in February after 21.2% in the month. rise in gasoline prices linked to the Iran war.
Policymakers raised their 2026 PCE projection to 2.7% from 2.4% in the same release.
Warsh has telegraphed a sharp pivot. He he told senators at his confirmation hearing that the Fed needs a “different, new approach to inflation,” indicated that it would withdraw from a press conference after the meeting, promising not to be anyone’s “puppet.”
He too they want $6.7 trillion less. Warsh said under oath that Fed tapering could leave interest rates low, inflation healthy, and the economy strong.
Both of these languages refer to the quantitative robustness (QT) rather than limiting rates.
Crypto Angle: Hawkish on Prices, Friendly on Bitcoin
Crypto traders are preparing for the shock. Warsh is more crabby than Powell on the laws of inflation but the best of the digital economy, and this combination reduces all the risk markets.
His public record now includes calling Bitcoin a “stable store of value,” opposing central bank digital currencies (CBDC), and saying that crypto is part of the United States currency.
He too revealed a net worth of 100 million dollars based on Layer 1 networks, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols, and Bitcoin payment methods.
Hawkish liquidity policy is still forcing BTC in the short term. Bitcoin has bounced back from its January highs as the drop plot freezes, and traders are increasingly bullish. caught between a Fed that wants to hold and a candidate that wants to shrink.
Bitcoin’s long-term case lies within the trading system itself. Former Fed Governor Mark Spindel has argued that aggressive banking policies strengthen the case for non-sovereign reserves, and Warsh’s framework could test that theory from within.
What to Watch Wednesday
The April 29 press conference will give Powell his final microphone. Markets will stop any bye line to:
- Tips for wounds that did not reach
- The prevailing inflation war, is
- Whether Powell is working for Warsh is a clear or controversial stick.
Powell could remain on the Board of Governors until 2028, an option he has not ruled out.
If he fully recuses himself on May 15, the next FOMC will be Warsh’s first, and the policy he wants to rewrite will begin to rewrite itself in real time.
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A note Powell’s Final FOMC: Counting His Wins, Losses, and the Mixed Bag He Leaves for Trump’s Fed Pick Kevin Warsh appeared for the first time BeInCrypto.
