History shows that stock market it may surface even with recent instability associated with Middle East conflicts involving the US, Israel, and Iran.
Of course, the tension has weighed on equity, kicking The value of the S&P500 down about 5% since the conflict began.
Now, after about 15 days of trading down, the market behavior is starting to show the familiar history that usually leads to a strong recovery.
Tracking of more than 30 major earthquakes since 1939 shows that U.S. stocks typically gain less than two weeks.
This pullback appears to be closely aligned with historical trends and intermediate trends seen during previous crises, reinforcing the idea that markets may be nearing their lows.
Opinions are shared by a market review platform Kobeissi’s letter on March 21 post on X shows that, after the first period of instability and decline, the currency stabilizes and reaches the lowest levels on the 12th to 15th day.
This sector is seen in recent trends, where the index has entered a range similar to the previous trade. Interestingly, the pattern points to a sharp but short-lived trough before a gradual recovery begins.
Historically, once this was implemented, the recovery phase took about 40 business days on average. During this period, stocks return to their pre-trend levels, often regaining lost ground and rising as uncertainty fades and investors return.
Stock market volatility is increasing
Overall, stocks fell sharply on Friday, with the S&P 500 hitting a six-month low as the US-Israel war with Iran entered its fourth week, fueling fears of an oil crisis and continued inflation.
The index fell 1.51% to 6,506.48, marking a weekly loss of 1.9%, the fourth consecutive weekly decline, and down about 5.4% since the dispute began on February 28.
The sale was driven by rising energy prices following attacks on key infrastructure, including Iran’s South Pars oil field, Qatari oil fields, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Although US markets have shown resilience due to domestic strength and the prospect of a short-term conflict, analysts warn that long-term uncertainty could lead to further losses.
