- Bitcoin (BTC) holds above $81,000 as a short-term boost.
- The weak growth of the network indicates cautious participation in the market.
- BTC is facing major resistance at $89,500.
Bitcoin has risen above $81,000, extending its monthly recovery and testing its highest trading volume in three months.
At press time, BTC traded at around $81,467 after gaining 5.2% over the past seven days and 17.6% over the past 30 days.
Recent moving places Bitcoin in a very difficult technical area, with several measures that indicate that the meeting is proceeding cautiously rather than being influenced by the market.
Online transactions and their derivatives are never silent
Although Bitcoin’s value has advanced, on-chain data shows that users are less active than in previous major events.
Business addresses and sales activities did not increase at the same rate as prices, indicating that business demand remains low.
This difference between the value and the functions of the blockchain generally indicates that the recent rise is supported more by the demand of institutions and investors than by natural adoption.
Of course, investment participation through Bitcoin ETFs has grown, with billions pouring into the capital helping price stability above key support levels.
However, participation in the derivatives market has remained relatively low compared to the past, with low volatility and soft futures indicating that traders are cautious.
Also, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently reading 50, putting ideas in the political field.
This suggests a market that is neither excited nor nervous, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin’s recent strength has not fueled widespread speculation.
Technical indicators are showing a bullish trend
The long-term technical structure of Bitcoin remains positive, and 12 out of 23 major technical indicators leaning bullish right now.
Additionally, BTC is trading above its 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day levels, which support continued growth.
However, Bitcoin remains below its long-term 200-day EMA, indicating that major resistance remains.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 69.5, placing BTC at the bottom of an overbought zone.
While this indicates bullish momentum, traders should keep an eye on potential exhaustion if the RSI crosses above 70 without strong volume.
A half circle indicates slow growth
Bitcoin’s fourth halving took place in April 2024, reducing mining rewards to 3.125 BTC per block.
The property is now about 25 months from being settled after half.
In the past, this stage is often associated with strong price growth, strong volatility, and a slow rise before rebounding.
In the past Bitcoin bull cycles have reached new highs regularly about 1,405 to 1,477 days apart.
Based on this approach, the current cycle may still have the potential to increase, although past events also show the risk of correction as the cycle deepens.
The short-term forecast for Bitcoin remains stable
Looking at the current market conditions, the area of resistance is sitting at $89,479.
A firm close above that level could open the way to the next resistance near $90,975.
However, if there is a pull, especially if the oversold area is reached, then the support level is at $75,109.
A break below $75,109 could weaken the bullish pattern and increase the chance of a deeper correction.
Going forward, traders should keep a close eye on the Bitcoin ETF entry, the whale rate, and the behavior of the RSI, in order to clearly determine whether the move could be a major sustained rally.
