Brent crude it was down about 12% on Monday trading at around $94, but market analyst Sam Daodu warns that oil prices will have to drop significantly – up to $85-80 $ – before the rallies in Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP prices can be stable.
According to Daodu, energy prices remain the main link between the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the crypto market trend, and until they reduce, the fear of rising prices and worries about interest rates will continue to damage the economy.
Bitcoin, XRP Retrace Amid Rising Oil Risks
Bitcoin it is currently above the most important emotional level of $70,000, while XRP is consolidating around $1.44. Both tokens have recovered slowly from last week’s highs, with Bitcoin down around 4% and XRP down around 5% on the weekly chart after facing strong resistance.
These difficulties, Mr. Daodu says, are tied to major forces that have pushed oil above $100 per barrel repeatedly since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz began at the end of February. Daodu they emphasize that higher oil prices help lower inflation and, more importantly, prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting policy.
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The Fed’s message on March 19 raised expectations for easy monetary policy. As expectations of lower rates fade, money moves away from riskier assets, and crypto, which still acts as a riskier asset, suffers.
The expert also pointed out the structural reasons crypto markets they have seemed more sensitive to geopolitical shocks. Because digital asset markets are open around the clock, they absorb the initial risk perception immediately, often before traditional markets open.
The 24/7 history of liquidity can lead to large movements of Bitcoin and XRP in the price following the end of the week or the heads of the night, as the sale is concentrated in the lower markets, as Daodu said in his report.
Brent Near $80–$85 May Unlock Perpetual Gains
Despite this storm, Mr. Daodu says there are technical solutions to make the ground. Bitcoin has created very low in a series of sales since the end of February, meaning that buyers will step in during any dip.
XRP, on the other hand, has maintained a range of $1.35–$1.45 through the recent rally, showing resilience despite the rally failing to materialize.
Fortunately, Daodu argues that oil is what can disrupt the long-term performance of crypto. He added that if Brent returns to $80–$85 on signs of an end to the war or diplomatic progress, inflation pressures should ease and the Fed may once again consider rate cuts.
New expectations for simple process they would also bring risk money to the crypto markets and give Bitcoin and XRP the momentum they need to thrive.
Conversely, if electricity prices remain north of $100, any support will be against inflation and prices that have been controlling prices since February.
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Daodu also reminded that several frameworks were in place before the controversy: the SEC’s move to treat Bitcoin as a commodity, entry into XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and progress on the CLARITY Act.
These resources are still in place, but, in his opinion, they do not have until the main conditions – led by the lack of oil – to allow the risk factors to re-establish.
Image taken from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
