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Today’s study focuses on where the money is actually it went as we passed the end of the year. First, we start with statistics that show continued volatility in large, proven crypto assets while speculative sectors continue to grow. Then we calculate the damages for the 2025 token launch.
Signs
Bitcoin was flat last week (+0.3%), traditional indices underperformed – NASDAQ (+1.7%), Gold (+1.1%), and S&P 500 (+0.9%). The gap widened during the week ending December 18, when many crypto shares sold off sharply as markets stabilized, indicating a move in crypto volatility rather than weakness.
DEXs (+11%) led all indices, followed by Crypto Miners (+9.5%) and 2025 Crypto Equity Cohort (+9.2%). DEX’s performance was led by UNI rising +15.4%, following Unification vote live onchain, with 69M UNI (40M quorum) voting yes. L1s (-2%) and Exchange Tokens (-2.2%) posted the least losses.
AI was the best performing sector (-21%), driven mainly by TAO (-21%). The weakness of TAO should reflect the evolution of the story around the first episode of Bittensor (around Dec. 14), which cut the daily output in half but did not quickly translate into increased demand, including putting risk on all AI problems.
Bad returns on new signs
As the end of the year approaches, it’s time to release the worst tape of 2025: a new token launch. A soon written by Ahboyash put hard numbers behind what many feel is natural. Beyond the 117 tokens launched in 2025, the return is very negative. The average index is down ~71% against its lowest index (FDV). Only 17/117 (15%) sales are above the starting price, while almost 40% are below 80%.
The drop is large and dangerous: 100/117 tokens (85%) are underwater. Losses increase in the 50-90% of the load, which represents the largest part of the load.
At the extreme tail, 15 tokens have dropped more than 90%, including top startups like Berachain (-93%), Animecoin (-94%), and Bio Protocol (-93%).
In total, the group’s total FDV has dropped from $139 billion when it was listed to $54 billion today, meaning about $87 billion (59%) of the loss is “paper” FDV, including any projects that have reached zero.
The dispersion on the right tail is real, but fixed. The worst performers are in architecture and gaming, with Syndicate (-93.6%) and Animecoin (-93.6%) among the laggards. Meanwhile, the biggest winners are the future, H2 starts with the lowest score, including Aster (+745%), Yooldo Games (+538%), and Humanity (+323%).
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