The Strategy gamebook looks different in 2026

This is an excerpt from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read the full article, register.

The Strategy is back as a reflection of the BTC economy, but it is a very different economic strategy compared to 2024-2025.

At the end of December, Strategy raised funds but did not send them to BTC. On Dec. 29-31, it sold 1,255,911 MSTR shares for a total of $195.9 million, but it only bought 3 BTC. In early January, shipping resumed: Jan. 1-4 saw another 735,000 shares sold for $116.3 million net, and 1,283 BTC bought for $116 million (avg $90,391/BTC), bringing the stock to 673,783 BTC.

The main symbol is on the back of the coin. In 2024 to early 2025, Strategy raised low-cost debt through a convertible bond (cash coupons 0.625% to 2.25%, then 0% conversion). The game works best when MSTR is investing more in Bitcoin NAV (mNAV > 1) due to asset selection.

However, by mid-to-late 2025, the value was crushed and dropped to zero (mNAV < 1), which made equity-linked funds difficult to invest and common issuance was limited to BTC per share. As a result, the money changed to cheaper prices, which are usually offered below, printing about 10% to 12.5%. The share of STRC has increased from 9% (August 2025) to 11.0% (January 2026) to open the channel.

Interestingly, the Strategy is still offering cash through the regular ATM offering despite the mNAV discount, accepting short-term reductions to continue to accumulate and save money. When the mNAV is below 1 and the discount rate is double, the buying leverage is low and the cost is high. This makes the Strategy more reliable, with a lower purchase price compared to the original rules. It will still be useful as a pen, but unless the tree is opened again, the output will be more noticeable than the standard tape engine.

Long term, 2025’s marginal bid was essentially a two-horse race: ETFs and Strategy. On a stock chart, the Strategy’s stock has followed a similar pattern to ETFs over the years, meaning the Strategy was similar to the movement of the ETF’s volatility in the area.

The plan for 2026 looks very weak. With a compressed mNAV and funds shifting to double-digit interest rates in addition to normal ATM withdrawals, the Strategy’s bid will be difficult to scale without increasing BTC dilution per share. The strategy is still indicative, but the buying pressure should be consistent and consistent, leaving the ETF movement with a large crypto risk to be a reliable way to set prices.

Get news in your inbox. Check out the Blockworks blog posts: