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Ahmed Barakat
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Bitcoin’s online activity index crossed the 365-day moving average for the first time since December 2024, entering what CryptoQuant legal research issues are known as the bull marketthe same limits that led to price developments in 2024 and 2025.
Daily Bitcoin transactions topped 800,000 in 2026, more than doubling from 2025 lows, and the number of transactions on the network jumped from about 3,320 to about 3,600. The price of BTC at the time of writing is at $62,500, down 2.5% in 24 hours.
Time carries a lot of weight. The slight weakening of the peace agreement in Iran has removed some of the long-term risk appetite in the crypto markets, with BTC holding on to the 200-week SMA near $62,000, a level that has been serving as long-term support.
The combination of the bull signal-part of the network and the macro tailwind makes the bottom question valid. What the data shows, however, is more complicated than the headline implies.
Remove the tree, and something familiar is happening on the ground. Whether it is a sign or a noise is the whole question.
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Bitcoin News: On-Chain Activity, What the 365-Day Break Really Tells Us
CryptoQuant’s network activity index measures the number of transactions, active addresses, and block usage.
Beyond its 365-day moving average, it has already shown a steady bullish reversal, which took place in late 2024 and briefly in April 2025, both of which led to higher prices. The index is now in the same category for the first time in over a year, with sales on almost every block approaching consecutive levels for several weeks in a row, which CryptoQuant describes as permanent and not temporary.
Collected data strengthens the brand. Long-term workers, known as HODL groups, now have more than 4.37 million BTC, up from about 2 million BTC in early 2024.
This is the unprofitable deadlock that keeps the supply ahead of the restocking price. VanEck’s analysis shows about 43% of the products have been dormant for more than three years, the highest on record.
The caveat is specific: CryptoQuant said that “the economics of this event are very different from previous events.” Transactions below 0.01 BTC, around $630 at current prices, now account for nearly 80% of all daily transactions, up from 44% in 2023.
The increase of the lower groups of 0.001 BTC and their sub-0.01 BTC higher groups before 2024 is driven almost exclusively by processes based on OP_RETURN: Runes, Ordinals, BRC-20 tokens, and timekeeping services.
CryptoQuant noted that the use of OP_RETURN “will peak in 2026,” with these protocols creating many high-value microtransactions that “directly explain the number of low-cost groups.” The transfer price for all transactions, as the company clearly states, “is small.”
The Mempool has grown to around 128,000 expected pregnancies, the highest since the end of February 2025, with a significant drop in the low-cost segment. CryptoQuant warns that the continued expansion of protocol-driven services “could lead to an increase in interest rates on time-consuming investments,” which could eventually lead to real money in real-time investments. The change is worth following, but it has not reached the point where it disrupts the stability of the system.
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