Bitcoin has closed a weekly candle below the 200-week exponential moving average for the first time in the current trend, a development that has shaken markets Expert Benjamin Cowen they say they follow history.
This Has Happened Before
The last time Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below the 200-week EMA was June 2022, during a bear market. Cowen said that the handshake of four years being broken or this time being different misses the point. The same strategy has been repeated over and over in the past, and multiples do not help investors.
“Bitcoin usually goes down in June,” Cowen said, pointing to similar June lows in 2022 and 2018 as reference points. The recent June lows fit the same template.
The parallel between 2026 and 2018 is difficult
Cowen has drawn parallels between 2018 and 2026 that are hard to ignore. In 2018, Bitcoin dropped in February, hit a low in late March to early April, and then bottomed out in June. In 2026, the same sequence occurred: lows in February, lows in late March to early April, and now lows in June.
In 2018 following the June low, Bitcoin rose slightly until early July before selling back in mid-July back to $6,000. Cowen asked if the level of $ 60,000 in 2026 is the same as $ 6,000 in 2018 and 2019, a line that their persistent violation may indicate that the market is approaching.
Time Based vs Cost Based
Cowen distinguished between two ways a bear market could end, and said investors should understand both.
The first is a time-based capitulation, in which he imagines the original story. Under these conditions, Bitcoin makes a low at the beginning of the summer, steps against the trend in the middle of the summer, and then falls to the bottom of the last market at the end of the third quarter or at the beginning of 2026.
The second is cost-effectiveness, where the emergency response triggers a surge in power, removes power points, re-establishes metrics on the chain, and forces the cycle to end earlier than the calendar would indicate. The outbreak of March 2020 is the most obvious example of this, where external shocks triggered such a correction and allowed the next bull market to begin.
Cowen also added that the three bear market periods, in 2014, 2018, and 2022, were accompanied by the greatest upswing not yet seen.
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