Bitcoin enters the third phase of the bear market, with technical analysis suggesting that one less leg will remain before breaking through in July, followed by a strong decline in August and a final decline around October.
Where Bitcoin Stands Right Now
Modern design they remain bullish according to Elliott Wave analysis following the decline since June. Bitcoin is straddling between minor support and resistance, with the first resistance zone sitting between $60,812 and $62,589.
A break above that level could be the first sign that a Q3 breakout has begun. Until then, one low remains as possible, which can test the support group of $ 55,500 to $ 56,000 which corresponds to the main part of the Fibonacci support during the high period.
Major market indicators reinforce the bearish reading. The 365-day official distributor confirms that Bitcoin is still in a bear market, and the price is trading under the entire flexible ribbon that moves between $64,000 to $81,000, very similar to the $67,000 to $77,000 resistance that has resisted several attempts this cycle.
Why July May Bring Relief
Despite climate change, the weather provides real reason for hope in the near future. History shows that July has been one of the strongest months for Bitcoin even during bear market years, often making a three-wave rally before retracing. August, by contrast, has historically been one of the lowest months of the year.
A strong contrast is also forming on the RSI, where the price is falling slightly while the RSI itself is printing new lows, a pattern that usually leads long-term rallies back to resistance. Combined with the weather patterns, this contributes to the formation of July eruptions, either as small waves within the current recession or a large correction.
Q3 targets
If the current Elliott Wave pattern is successful, the initial target for Bitcoin is close to $39,000, based on the 100% Fibonacci retracement from the recent wave. The path there may be straightforward or may involve a large jump first. On the other hand, each meeting in July is expected to meet resistance between $ 67,000 and $ 77,000, with 200 days moving around $ 75,000 to strengthen this area.
Time-scale analysis shows the last low in October, give or take 30 days, in line with how previous Bitcoin bear markets lasted between 360 and 380 days. This could end the current bear market in Q4 2026, and set up the next phase of the bull market.
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