XRP has fallen almost 70 percent from its July 2025 price of about $3.66, trading close to $1.12 by the beginning of July 2026. Such a trend even tests patients. But more and more chart watchers say the pain could be masking something bigger at play underneath.
Trend Line Continues to Run
Another expert pointed out to the long rising streak that XRP has followed since 2020, which has already survived three major tests. Every time the price came back to touch the rising support line, it went higher. The first came in April 2020 at around 16 cents, followed by a run to around $2 a year later. The second came in mid-2022, followed by an increase of 94 cents. The third came in late 2024, putting last year’s move at all times.
Why is the Fourth Test Important?
Now XRP may be approaching the fourth test of the same line, somewhere in the 74 to 80 cent range. This number is important because of what happened the last time XRP was hit for the fourth time in the previous form of the currency. Back in February 2017, XRP fell by almost half a cent after the previous defense of 2013. The next step was a rise of $ 3.31 in January 2018, a move of about 63,000 percent.
Repetition Is Questionable, But Not The Point
No one is predicting that XRP will repeat the real gains. The stock is much bigger now, the market is much more mature, and every iteration since 2020 has already produced smaller movements than the previous one. This is normal for an economy that has grown from a small niche to a multi-billion dollar market. Small does not mean small. Even a small retracement of previous cycles would still be a big move from current prices.
Everyone’s Viewing Level
The most important thing right now is that XRP has a 74 to 80 cent zone when it gets there. A successful defense would strengthen the case so that the larger form remains. Resting below it, without retrieving it, would weaken the comparison with a very old cycle.
Markets don’t repeat themselves well, and old systems fail more often than the headlines indicate. But the setup gives owners a measure to watch rather than react to short-term price changes, and that difference alone is shaping how traders approach the next few months.
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