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The XRP exchange and its chart tell two versions of the same story. The chain’s data shows money leaving the trading floor at its fastest pace since February, while the daily chart shows the market has stopped falling but is unchanged.
The token is trading at $1.10 at the time of writing, down 0.40% on the day, stable between the cycle near $1.01 and the low of the 50-day moving average that has already refused to be tested once this month.
TL; DR
- Coinbase’s seven-day net XRP deposits/withdrawal rate fell to around -13,000 on July 15, and Binance around -5,600.
- Coinbase’s reading is close to 700 events, or 5.7%, deeper than -12,300 recorded on February 14.
- Binance’s XRP reserves are close to 2.61 billion tokens, their lowest level since February, when the price traded close to $1.10.
- The seven-day movement of Bybit changed about 27,220 in 38 days, from +27,000 on June 7 to -220 on July 15.
Coinbase’s Difference Withdrawal Growth Goes Big in February
CryptoQuant scholar Amr Taha wrote that Coinbase’s seven-day net deposits / stop accounting has fallen to about -13,000 on July 15, more than -12,300 reading from February 14. This makes it currently recover control of 5.7% worse than before five months ago, a big difference between outgoing and inbound exchange time.
Binance shows the same strategy on a smaller scale. Its metric fell to about -5,600 events, close to the levels last seen on February 11, which leaves Coinbase’s negative reading about 2.3 times greater than Binance. The biggest structural change, however, came from Bybit, where the number of seven days fell from approximately +27,000 transactions on June 7 to -220 on July 15. Taha said that the neutral reading of Bybit shows that “the initial control of deposit transactions has ended significantly” instead of stopping the outflow.
With Coinbase, Binance and Bybit all in negative territory at the same time, the data points to a fluctuating exchange rate and XRP withdrawal activity. One note comes from the researcher himself: the metric counts transactions, not the amount of XRP or its dollar value, so it captures changes in user behavior rather than determining the size of the money flowing.
Binance Reserves Have Been At Their Bottom Since February
What is happening is related to what is happening in the exchange. CryptoQuant supporter He also mentioned the Arab Chain that Binance’s XRP reserves fell to around 2.61 billion XRP at the beginning of July, their lowest level since February, and have remained close to the mark without many funds bringing the money back.
Depreciation did not raise prices. XRP fell to around $1.01 at the same time, and Arab Chain warned that “the reduction of exchange reserves does not mean an increase in prices,” referring to currency, trading volume and sentiment as competitive forces. It is a counter-argument to the straight-forward calculation: the reduction of the exchange rate and the acceleration of the force explain the slow decrease in sales, not the demand, and the five months of the fall of the Binance reserves coincided with the fall in price, not the rise.
Base Within a Downtrend
Daily chart frames so the change in the chain has not yet affected the price. XRP remains at a distance from the high of March-April near $ 1.60, with a very slippery leg that fell from $ 1.40 at the end of May to a low of close to $ 1.01 on June 25. SMA, and returned to the July 13 low near $ 1.05. This second door is 3-4% above the June floor, making the lowest since April instead of double, because the two waterfalls are not the same.
The early July rejection also defines bull trap risk for this setup. This burst pulled the buyers above $1.15 before it failed at the 50-day SMA and returned all the trends, and the recent recovery of $1.10 can repeat the process: the meeting that clears the 50-day intraday, the low point below $1.18-1.19 above and the rollover can close late in the second period and go down.
All three major moving averages are above the price and continue to decline: 50 days at $1.14, 100 days at $1.27 and 200 days at $1.44. The absolute bearish trend maintains its trend until the 50-day reversal. Momentum provides the first encouraging information: RSI (14) at 48.6 holds above its signal line, and the price at the end of June close to $ 1.01 published a higher position of the RSI than the reading of the beginning of June, a small difference that led to the current stability. The decrease in volume, 13.2 million per day against June spikes above 30 million, confirms consolidation rather than change.
The high-low formation remains unconfirmed until the $1.18-1.19 July high is broken. A daily close above the 50-day SMA near $1.14, followed by a close at $1.185, may indicate the first breakout of the downtrend since April and may open the way to $1.27, where the 100-day SMA is waiting. A daily close below $1.05 through July could clear the lows and show $1.01 again, and a breakdown that would send XRP below $1 for the first time this cycle.
In the coming weeks, I will let you know if Binance reserves go down as the price fluctuates. A continuation of the decline following the close through $1.185 could confirm the idea of squeezing; a rally that fails within the band of $1.14-1.185 before resting below $1.05 may indicate a recovery as a bull trap and confirm the warning of the Arab Chain that the redemption alone cannot carry the price.
