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Ahmed Barakat
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The USE Act, a bill that would define whether digital assets fall under the jurisdiction of the SEC or the CFTC, has two remaining windows before August: the weeks of July 20 and July 27.
They’ve missed both, and Senator Lummis has warned that market regulation could languish until 2030 or die at the end of the 119th Congress in January 2027, forcing a complete overhaul.
That’s not just political speculation, it’s a result of the Senate’s calendar that leaves about three weeks of action after September before lawmakers get into the thick of the campaign.
One year after Washington’s Crypto Week, the credit card is not the same. The GENIUS Act became law on July 18, 2025, establishing the first federal regulation of stablecoin payments.
The anti-CBDC plan eventually passed within the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, becoming law on July 10, the House voted 358-32, the Senate 85-5, making Trump’s refusal to sign it null and void.
The CLARITY Act, which passed the House 294-134 on July 17, 2025, cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14, 2026, and has been on the Senate Legislative Calendar since June 1 with no floor votes scheduled.
The difference between GENIUS and CLARITY is important here. GENIUS ruled one thing. CLARITY dominates the entire market. It answers a group question that determines everything downstream: whether a given digital asset falls under the jurisdiction of the SEC as a security or the jurisdiction of the CFTC as a commodity.
Registration, retention, scheduling decisions, and disclosures all come from one point of view. In the absence of an official answer, the question is answered by any agency that can initiate a lawsuit, or by any party that has the White House.
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Vote math is getting complicated
Senate leadership needs 60 votes. The Republican coalition is already broken. Senators Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) were the only two Republicans to vote against the GENIUS Act; on Galaxy Digital expert Alex Thorn, both are expected to challenge CLARITY as well.
Senator McConnell has missed the polls due to an ongoing medical problem, and the death of Senator Lindsey Graham at age 71 further reduced the once-minority Republican majority. In Thorn’s reckoning, the administration would need Democratic crossovers to reach a breakthrough.
Those crossovers are not protected. Senators Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) voted yes in committee but indicated that the votes were permanent, not floor commitments.
Polymarket’s current odds in 2026 are around 34% and falling.
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Clarity Act: Four Arguments, Zero Choices
The first and most obvious obstacle is ethics. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) wrote to Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on July 13, seeking guardrails to prevent officials and members of Congress from profiting off the crypto industry.
The letter mentions about $1.4 billion in crypto-related money that is outlined in the president’s 2025 letter. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (DN.Y.) has made official language about government officials’ interests in crypto necessary to support her. The attached documents from the banking and agricultural commissions are subject to ethical standards.
The dissent led by Senator Lummis would allow state attorneys general to sue exchanges that list signs issued by federal officials in violation of the law — but Senate Republicans are unlikely to advance any language that the White House opposes. For more information on this conflict, see the ethical debate behind the delay of the CLARITY Act.
The second argument is legal. The National District Attorneys Association has challenged the Senate leadership that Section 604, the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, could interfere with criminal investigations by protecting software developers from money laundering.
Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) also said that manufacturers who do not manage customers’ money should not be classified as money transmitters for printing. Senators Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) tied their votes directly to the police signing.
Third: banking groups, including the ABA and ICBA, argue that the bill creates a stablecoin yield that allows digital platforms to offer rewards similar to interest that prevents the GENIUS Act on the interest paid by the issuer.
The Independent Community Bankers of America has questioned the scale of the bill. Fourth, and in order: the CFTC has been operating with one committee, and the SEC has two operations. Rules issued by the CFTC’s sole commission could create a legal crisis and keep legal uncertainty alive. Senator Amy Klobuchar has proposed blocking the plan from taking effect until four CFTC commissioners are confirmed.
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