Capital.com Senior Financial Market Analyst Kyle Rodda warned that Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a “binary threat” as the President trumpets Tuesday 8 PM ET Iran’s ultimatum to force traders into a pure escalation-or-rest situation.
BTC fell below $69,000 on Tuesday after briefly rising above $70,000 a day earlier, when Iran rejected a request for a 45-day ceasefire and Trump announced a deadline.
Trump’s Fourth Term and the Crypto Response
Trump has asked Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or strike against every bridge and power station in the country. This is the fourth time that the President has extended and re-implemented the proposed measures from March 21.
A fifth delay is possible if Trump sees a deal made, although he said on Monday it was “unlikely” to delay it again.
Rodda told BeInCrypto that markets have been active, expecting one of two outcomes.
“Strikes happen, things escalate or don’t happen, and then there’s another big rally in support. Bitcoin remains stable, trading between $US60,000 and $US75,000,” Rodda said.
He added that the biggest upside will affect BTC due to rising Treasury yields and a strong US dollar, both driven by rising oil prices.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rallied around 100 and appears to be on the brink of collapse, a sign that echoes Rodda’s warning.
The DXY chart shows the fractal patterns from 2014 and 2021 that preceded the BTC expansion.
“DXY’s move to the upside may take USDT’s lead with it… he said expert Kyle Doops.
However, Rodda also showed courage on the floor.
“We must be reminded of how strong Bitcoin has become and there are experiments, although far from certain, that show that it is going,” he said.
Bear Flag on Clock
The design of the technology adds another element of speed. BTC has been consolidating within the bearish flag for about 60 days, matching the 54 days of the previous bearish flag before it was broken.
However, it is important to mention that the low volume across the system makes the meetings difficult to believe.
The daily crypto exchange has fallen to the point where FTX has fallen, indicating that sentiment has become more bearish.
Likewise, with oil as a leading indicator, crude tried to resist four timesand a breakout of $128 per barrel could disrupt the stock market, pushing BTC further.
Institutional Movements and the End of Instability
Elsewhere, experts at QCP Capital he realized that markets are becoming increasingly crowded More Trump strategy after adding four times in a row.
Oil prices have been reduced and futures will remain stable, indicating a reduction in risk ahead.
The demands of the organizations have been encouraging. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.32 billion in inflows in March, their first month since October 2025, which was four months out.
MicroStrategy has it too resumed BTC accumulation after a short rest.
In the options market, the implied volatility is very low since the war began on February 28. Skew has also started to stabilize, meaning that the need for hedging has decreased despite the country’s spread.
Polymarket data demonstrations traders only offer a 3% chance to end the war by April 7th, rising to 30% by April 30th.
Reports also suggest that Trump could further delay the deadline if a deal appears close, adding to some of the changes already in place.
Whether Tuesday brings a strike or another extension, BTC’s actions will test whether Rodda’s signature signals can hold on to the national trend and the bearish flag as time expires.
A note Capital.com’s Kyle Rodda presents Bitcoin’s ‘Binary Risk’ as Trump’s Iran Deadline Looms appeared for the first time BeInCrypto.
