A US F-15E crashed, forcing a rescue mission near Isfahan. The odds of US troops entering Iran by April 30 rose to 86% YES, up from 62% yesterday.
Traders are worried about the increasing US military presence in Iran. The April 30 market, with 27 days left, now represents 86% YES. A 4-point rise at 2:14 PM indicates brisk trading. On December 31, the market rose again to 90% YES, indicating the expectation of the presence of the US for a long time.
This market trades $5 million in USDC every day, a very important token in the political world. With $85,204 needed to move the April market by 5 points, institutional players can have it. The recent 4-point jump confirms interest in the news.
What happened in Isfahan reflects what is happening in the army under Operation Epic Fury. The rise in US performance potential is significant, thanks to three sources. Businessmen are betting that they will continue to participate in the military. At 86¢, the YES share pays $1 if the US military is confirmed in Iran by April 30—a return of 1.16x. Believing in further announcements within 27 days is a must for this bet.
Look for statements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon on military operations. The following summary of Hegseth may provide some important information.
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