The CPI reports for March are due tomorrow at 8:30am ETand it weighs more than any inflation this year. Economists are predicting a big jump of 3.3% year-on-year, from February’s 2.4% reading – the first report detailing the inflation of the Iran war and the rise in oil prices that came with it.
US oil prices breached $4 a gallon nationally in March for the first time since August 2022, and the Cleveland Fed’s data has signaled the highest monthly rate increase for several weeks.
What makes Friday unusual is that analysts and traders are not reading the situation.
The Difference Between Expert Involvement and Market Prices
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said that Bitcoin is “currently prices are only going up 2.5% in both directions” on the back of data that has implied volatility at its lowest level since January.
Iliya Kalchev, Nexo expert, they see it differentlywarning that “Any drop in inflation has a weight in crypto – a slow reading opens up the discussion of reductions; warming makes the story much longer.”
The March jobs report adds to the challenges.
The US added 178,000 jobs last month, and gained 186,000 private sector jobs – statistics. Trump celebrated on Truth Social. But experts have been quick to point out that the figures are retrospective and do not reflect the economic impact of the war.
A strong labor market coupled with rising inflation provides Federal Reserve even less to justify cutting prices.
Read more: Is Bitcoin Controlled by Market Insiders?
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Three CPI Scenarios
If inflation gets hotter than expected above 3.5%, the cut rate will weaken significantly and Bitcoin will lose the $70,000 level it just recovered, with $68,400 as the next support.
Analyst Ted Pillows they just announced BTC “failed to stay above the $72,000 level” and that after one last pump, “BTC will go down slowly.”
Reading according to expectations at 3.3% can produce muted words, and Bitcoin included in its own for now as markets await the April 30 Fed meeting. A cooler than expected print below 3.0% could also open the cut story, with $74,000 as the main target for the promotion based on Deribit’s decision.
What On-Chain Data Says
CryptoQuant Expert Darkfost noted that only 59% of Bitcoin is profitable at the moment, approaching a bear market while the historical average is around 75%.
“The current position appears to be more suitable for accumulation than selling at this time,” he wrote.
Lark Davis sees it weekly MACD mirroring the initial form from July 2022, although he warns “A cross is just a cross on the weekend.”
The data is making a case. Friday’s low inflation rate will prove or make a big difference.
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