The price of Ethereum (ETH) clings to a profit of 2.93% in March, its first green month since August 2025. Every month from September to February it closed in the red, creating six months of losses that removed 50% of the price of ETH.
There are only a few days left in March, the question is whether Ethereum can benefit from this or if the opposing forces will turn the month red and increase the streak to seven.
March Started Strong, But The Second Quarter Tells A Different Story
The monthly return chart shows the breakdown. on September 2025 it changed to +5.59%. October 2019 changed to +7.15%. November fell 22.2%. December 2019 decreased by 0.83 %. January 2026 lost 17.7%, and February lost 19.6%.
March +2.93% stands alone in green, but the number hides what happened in the second half of the month.
On the 4-hour chart, The price of Ethereum it has been trading in a downtrend since March 16, when it hit $2,380. The move pushed ETH to as low as $1,970, a correction of about 18% since mid-March. The price of ETH is currently close to $2,020, it is still inside the channel and is still going down.
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The first half of March paid dividends. The second division has been consistently giving them back. If the channel continues to push the price to the lower limit, the remaining days of March may determine whether the trend ends or continues.
Two fault-based measures indicate that the bears are reaching the end of the month.
The whales are going down and the dip buyers are dying
Ethereum whale walletexcluding exchange addresses, which held 122.91 million ETH as recently as 48 hours ago. The amount has dropped to 122.73 million, reducing about 180,000 ETH. This period is concerning because it coincides with the price slide at the end of the downtrend.
The Money Flow Index (MFI), a powerful indicator of volume that serves as a buying project, adds another layer of concern. Between March 8 and March 28, the price of Ethereum rose sharply on the 4-hour chart. However, the MFI during the same window fell.
The bearish contrast means that buying support has been on the wane in March, even though the monthly price was in the green. Each successive dip attracted more and more buyers. As the whales decline, and the dip buyers disappear at the same time, the decision below the current price is less.
If the broader market continues to weaken, these two metrics suggest that Ethereum may not need to hold onto its March gains.
Ethereum Price Forecast is $1,970 Zone
The required level is $1,972 ($1,970 position). It has been a support since early March.
A 4-hour close below $1,970 would break a major support level (0.618 Fib level) and pushing ETH closer to the lower border of the channel.
Below that, $1,910 and $1,830 come in. A break below $1,830 would confirm the breakdown of the channel, and a drop of about 10% from the same level would target the area of $1,650. However, this kind of collapse still takes time to happen.
On the other hand, ETH needs to bounce back and hold above the $2,050 zone to ease pressure quickly. Above that, the upper limit of the channel near 2,110 becomes a real test of strength.
At the moment, $1,970 separates the green month of Ethereum in seven from the damage that could push it to $1,650.
A note Ethereum Is Fighting To Break The 6-Month Curse, But Things Can Go Wrong appeared for the first time BeInCrypto.
