The Gulf states are moving to improve relations with Iran amid ongoing tensions in 2026. The odds of the US-Iran ending the war by April 7 are at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago.
The market is showing interest in negotiations, with the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) acting as mediators. The April 30 fire stop market it jumped to 38% YES, indicating that traders are expecting an improvement in the near future. The biggest increase is between April 15 and April 30, with a rise of 20 points, which means that there may be incentives.
Ceasefire Markets trades $1.37M in USDC daily. The sale of $ 43,954 moves the market of April 15 by five points, showing the interest of the institutions. The biggest move was a 4-point rise in the market on April 30, reflecting optimism about the negotiations.
GCC initiatives are important. Their cooperation, along with US cooperation, can strengthen the region. This reduces the chances of the Iranian government collapsing, and June 30 the government is closing the market down to 10% YES from 12% yesterday and 22% a week ago. The share of YES at 10 ¢ pays $ 1 if the government collapses on June 30, but current negotiations indicate stability.
Traders should monitor the activities between Qatar and Oman and any changes in statements from the parties involved, which may indicate the continuation of the ceasefire.
Markets Affected
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