Gold is having its worst month in decades. Nine straight losing sessions. Down 13% in one month. Down 27% since January all time. And yet one of the world’s most famous golden cows is not for sale. He is buying more and says that the biggest increase in the history of gold is just beginning.
Here’s everything you need to know about why gold is falling right now, followed by why Peter Schiff thinks the selloff is ending at $11,400.
Why Gold Is Falling Today
Gold was trading around $4,350 an hour on Monday, down 3% for the session and 13.18% lower than a month ago. The metal peaked at $5,608 in January 2026 and has been on a downward trend ever since.
Because it isn’t difficulties. The Iran war pushed oil above $112 a barrel. High oil prices fuel inflation. Inflation forces the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high. Higher interest rates make US Treasury bonds more attractive than gold, which pays no interest. Investors sold gold to buy bonds. It’s as simple as that.
Markets are now pricing in a Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of the year, a development that could put more pressure on yields and lower gold prices in the short term.
The Iranian break that didn’t help
President Trump announced on Monday that he was suspending protests in Iran for five days following what he described as a major deal with Tehran. The news boosted gold briefly before Iran’s state-run Fars News Agency denied the talks had taken place, saying Trump’s flight was prompted by Iran’s threat to target electricity across the region.
The mixed signals left markets confused rather than relaxed. Gold trimmed some losses but maintained its downward trend, extending its losing streak to nine sessions, the longest since 2023.
Trading Economics projects gold will end this quarter near $4,499 before rebounding to $4,879 in the next twelve months. That is the consensus. Schiff thinks that this agreement is very wrong.
Peter Schiff’s Gold Price Prediction: Why He Sees $11,400
Peter Schiff, one of the most widely followed investors in the precious metals industry, published a historic report this week that is having a major impact on the financial markets.
“In the first months of the 2008 financial crisis, gold fell 32%, nearly 40% of what it gained during the bull market,” Schiff wrote. After gold fell by 178% in the next three years. Gold is close to $4,100 today, down 27%, nearly 40% of its gain from $2,000.
The numbers are almost exact. Gold’s current decline from its January peak reflects a reduction in the risk that occurred at the start of the 2008 crash, before the metal began its biggest bull run in its history.
Schiff also pushed back on the idea that a peace deal between the US and Iran would be bad news for gold.
“If the war ends soon, then gold is the best. But it is not enough to end all the good things,” he said. “The government will still pay to replenish the equipment it used up and rebuild what it destroyed. So there will be a greater shortage and inflation than if the war had been fought.”
His argument is that the war has badly damaged the economy regardless of its outcome. High deflation, inflation, a weakening dollar, and dollar pressure due to systemic pressure, all point in the same direction for gold in the medium to long term.
“If you had gold before the war, you would have to be very strong,” Schiff said.
Gold Price Predictions: What the Data Says
Here is where gold stands today against the key benchmarks that watchers see.
Gold is currently trading at $4,462 per ounce. Its all-time high was $5,608 in January 2026. It’s down 27% from that peak. It is still 48.27% compared to one year ago. The Trade Economics consensus is set at $4,499 at the end of the quarter and $4,879 at the end of the twelve months. Peter Schiff’s target from the $4,100 low is $11,400.
