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We start with a de-risking tape on tech, crypto and mining, then look at Robinhood’s market map.
Signs
Markets closed on a clear doomsday note yesterday. Gold was the only bright spot, finishing 0.8%, while the S & P 500 ended quietly and the Nasdaq and BTC fell -1.38% and -1.89%, respectively.
The underlying drivers remain unchanged, with continued volatility in AI-heavy trades on tech-heavy indices. Meanwhile, sentiment was clouded by reports that a major Oracle investor had pulled out of the data center project. Although Oracle later denied the claims, the headline was enough to force previously cautious investors to hedge their bets.
That weakness seeped into crypto, with each session ending in the red. One surprise that happened was the meme index, which only dropped -1.2% even though it was one of the most emotional sectors. The index received support from M (MemeCore), which was the only one to close in the green and gained 1.96% on the day.
The hardest hit sectors were Crypto Miners and AI, both down around -9%. Miners continue to be under pressure due to fears that the AI trade is moving, with IREN now down -31% in the last month. In the AI series, TAO was the weakest, falling -9% even though it is about to be reduced.
Some hope for readers: Despite the market’s negative sentiment, BTC ETFs have rebounded and raised $346.1 million yesterday. Hopefully this can continue for a few days in a row to end the year on a bit of a positive note.
Market Changes
It feels like every week brings a big development in the prediction markets. This week it was Robinhood, which unveiled new market innovations at its main event. Growth analysis makes sense. Predictive markets have become Robinhood’s It grows rapidly in terms of investmentand 11 billion contracts sold by more than 1 million users.
Sports continue to be a good driver. Now they count approx 35% of books at Polymarket and nearby 90% in Kalshi. If we do the exercise from the last four weeks on all these platforms, it comes to about $74.5 billion. In the news, FanDuel saw about $50.7 billion sold in 2024 by DraftKings round $49.4 billion. Prediction markets are no longer a niche product – they are competing directly with established Web2 players.
The last missing piece has been the races. Parlays make approx 30% the amount of sports betting is approx 60% of corporate income. They combine multiple bets into a single bet, offering higher payouts but with a lower chance of winning. This is why they are so beneficial for platforms.
Robinhood is now moving strongly in this sector. They he announced so that users will soon be able to sell the following mixes, including coverage of NFL games. Looking ahead to as early as 2026, users will be able to create up to 10 combinations for NFL games. Robinhood too to allow trading in the performance of each player. This is a smart leap from the win/loss markets that are currently offered and opens the door to more and more quantitative thinking. Robinhood plans expanding these aspects beyond football and eventually beyond all sports.
The remaining question is how Robinhood chooses to build. Can this be developed in collaboration with Kalshi or brought in completely? This question became more important after Robinhood in the near future plans to build a market forecasting platform through a partnership with Susquehanna International Group. Coinbase re-entered the picture this week to announce partnership with Kalshi to release market predictions for its users. The arms race is well underway.
The sports market has gained a lot of market share this year. With distribution on a large scale and products on the rise, Robinhood’s recent moves can make sense. If there was a market today for a forecast market leader by volume in 2026, my bet would be on Robinhood.
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