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Ahmed Balaha
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A bipartisan group of senators introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 on Thursday, prohibiting government officials from using private information to sell market contracts and imposing fines equal to the profits made. It is the second market forecasting blog launched this week alone. That decline was no accident. It is a sign of legal compliance.
The law covers the president, vice president, members of Congress, elected officials, and employees of regulatory and independent agencies. Each contract wager above $250 must be reported to the ethical management office within 30 days, with disclosure requirements that include cost, position, platform name, profit or loss.
Congress is drawing a line around prediction markets as a new vector for insider trading. Two bills in five days means this is no longer a problem.
- Scope of Orders: The Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act covers the president, vice president, all members of Congress, elected officials, and federal employees – and requires a mandatory bettor’s report for any contract over $250 within 30 days.
- Disciplinary Structure: Violations result in fines up to double the amount of profit earned, targeting direct financial incentives rather than formal penalties.
- Market Results: Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket – which changed trading rules on March 23, 2026, to ban the use of confidential information – now face CFTC scrutiny and regulatory scrutiny if the bill moves forward.
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Bill: What Human Rights Prohibit
Senators Todd Young, Elissa Slotkin, John Curtis, and Adam Schiff introduced the bill in the second session of the 119th Congress. The law defines inside information as anything “that a reasonable business person would consider necessary” for making a predictive market decision that is not publicly available — a level of intentional secrecy sufficient to conceal information about policies, legislative decisions, and government actions before they are announced.
The reporting process requires the authorities to disclose the number of contracts purchased, the price and the usual stamp, the name of the contract, the area taken, the sales area used, any profit or loss. That level of granularity reflects security disclosure requirements, not general oversight.
Senator Slotkin put the law into force: “No one should benefit from the knowledge and experience gained as a public servant.” He added that the bill “has real teeth to ensure that those who violate these laws face real consequences.” The double benefit penalty system is designed to eliminate any financial considerations that lead to violations.
This bill follows the PREDICT Act, which was introduced on March 25, 2026, by Reps. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) and Adrian Smith (R-NE), which impose government penalties of 10% of the transaction value plus the full loss of profits to the US Treasury. The PREDICT Act expands trade restrictions to spouses, dependent children, and Executive Schedule positions – more individual than the Senate bill. Together, they affect almost every group of government officials and their families.
Rep. Adrian Smith summed up the bipartisanship principle: “Our bipartisanship will give Americans confidence that the decisions of their elected officials are guided by common good, not personal gain.” Both bills target platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, which has become increasingly popular in the US prediction markets.
The Curtis-Schiff Senate effort, which was introduced earlier this week, also introduced a measure to regulate sports betting on betting platforms, a third piece of legislation that goes hand-in-hand with the insider trading goal. This broad sweep shows that DRM’s focus is moving beyond political markets to the prediction market.
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