Fundstrat’s Tom Lee thinks past trends suggest April could be a strong month for stocks.
In a new interview on CNBC, Lee estimates that 90-95% of Iran’s war-related sales market is already in the past.
“When the month of March began, the war seemed to be not a short war, but a long one, and I think that the markets have been preparing. But we are still in the middle of the fog of this war, because we do not know when it will end, but we looked at the last seven major events, and the stock market changes very quickly.
During the first 10% of the entire duration of the war, the stock market is usually down. “
Lee points to World War II as the most important piece of history.
So World War II was about five years, and the market went down five months into the war. So I think, as March was, we’ve probably seen a big part of that change. And now I think the risk/reward ratio is very good for stocks. “
The market analyst still sees the S&P 500 reaching 7,700 by the end of the year despite a rough start to 2026.
The leading index is trading at 6,604.85 at the time of writing and is up 3.15% over the past five days but down 3.82% year-to-date.
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