The odds of stopping the fire as of April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% the week before. Talks include the US, Iran, and mediators pushing for a 45-day ceasefire to resume talks.
Traders remain skeptical. The April 7 the market is almost flat, showing doubts about the immediate advance. The April 15 and April 30 markets show a little optimism, with odds at 6% and 18% YES, respectively.
Traders expect to travel in late April or May. Winning jump 19 points in between April 30 and May 31stmeans a helper.
Trading volume hit $431,402 in USDC in all trading markets yesterday. The April 7 the market of $22,948 in USDC shows a decrease in liquidity – $12,352 makes 5 points. In contrast, April 30 it wants $19,925 for the same move, indicating more depth.
Negotiations to end the war face obstacles. Iran’s resistance to U.S. demands and insistence on permanent guarantees make the conflict less likely to resolve the issue quickly. Trump’s deadline could intensify tensions. At 1¢, the YES portion of April 7 pays $1 if canceled – 100x return. Faith in quick success within four days is important.
Watch for last-minute updates from Trump or proxies like Oman or Qatar. Trump’s final day is Tuesday, April 7, at 8 PM ET. Any changes to “benefits” or “contracts” may have adverse effects.
Markets Affected
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