President Trump has given Iran 48 hours to implement the deal, warning of further complications. The odds of ending the war by April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Businessmen are meeting the said conditions by reducing the chances of ending the war. The April 7 market indicates a limited opportunity, trading at 1% YES is only four days away. The April 15 market it is at 6.5% YES, down from 8%, showing little confidence in the rapid decline. The April 30 market has dropped to 17.5% YES, which means that traders expect more problems.
The market is holding $430,773 in USDC across all sub-markets. The order book for April 7 is thin, with only $12,367 needed to move the odds by 5 points, which shows that small trades can have a big impact on prices. Traders are hoping for an increase between April 30 and May 31, where there is an increase of 19 points.
Trump’s views show the fragility of peace talks. At 1¢, the YES share for the April 7 expiration will pay $1 if it is canceled, and return 100x. However, this requires believing that there will be a sudden change in diplomacy, which seems unlikely given the current situation.
Look at the actions of mediators such as Oman and Qatar, or updates on Pentagon briefings. This may indicate a change in temperature.
Markets Affected
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