President Trump is working to end the conflict with Iran and stop the development of nuclear weapons. The odds of the US-Iran ending the war by April 30 fell to 23.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.
The market is showing different trends. The chances of stopping the fire soon are low: April 7 is at 1.8% YES, down from 8% the previous day. The April 15 the market has also fallen to 8.5% from 18%. However, a May 31st the market is at 45.5% YES, which means that traders expect to move forward in the coming months.
$ 535,634 was sold in the last 24 hours, with a significant decrease of 4-point on May 31. It takes $ 25,858 to move the market of April 7 5 points, indicating a decrease in water. The biggest change of mind is between April 30 and May 31, indicating what will happen in May.
Trump’s diplomatic efforts may change course, but skepticism persists. The market suggests that it could happen by the end of May, with the May 31 YES share price at 46¢, offering a return of 2.2x if liquidated. Traders are betting on ambassadorial support within 59 days.
Watch the peace talks, the CENTCOM talks, or the mediation of Oman or Qatar. Rubio’s and Hegseth’s actions are also important for US opinion.
Markets Affected
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