US and Israeli officials want to slow down Iran’s uranium enrichment before they end up in a war. The odds of ending the war as of April 7 have dropped to 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Markets reacted to Trump’s announcement that he was extending Iran’s deadline to lift sanctions. The April 7 market is about to weaken, when April 15 market works at 6.5% YES. The April 30 market saw a significant decrease, now at 17.5% YES, from 24% yesterday.
The quote shows a jump from 18% on April 30 to 36% by May 31, suggesting that traders are anticipating developments in mid-May. With just four days to go before the April 7 verdict, a quick drop seems unlikely.
The fire extinguisher market has a daily value of $3.7M, with USDC trading at $431K. It takes $ 12,352 to move the April 7 market 5 points, showing a thin book. One big move was a 2-point rise in the market on April 30, reflecting the enthusiasm of a few traders.
Focusing on weakening Iran’s economy before ending hostilities suggests a better strategy rather than a near-term solution. Market trends show that traders see this as a real bullish trend. At 1.1¢, YES’ share of the 7 April ceasefire offers $1 if it expires – a 90x long-term return, begging to believe the deadline has passed.
View CENTCOM statements and actions from Oman or Qatar. A change in working languages or interactivity can change market dynamics.
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