The price of XRP rose almost 3% from the March 27 low of $1.31, retaking the $1.35 area. However, this move may be creating a bear flag rather than starting a sustained recovery, and the stock market is not helping.
Since peaking at $1.60 on March 17, XRP has already recovered 18%. The intraday bounce looks encouraging on the surface, but the chart, derivatives, and chain data all point in the same direction.
Bearish Patterns As Hidden Bearish Divergence Builds
The 12-hour chart shows XRP trading within a bear flag pattern. The column that was formed during the decline of 18% from $ 1.60 to $ 1.31 between March 17 and March 27. The recent jump of 3% is forming a flag phase, an upward trend that is usually stabilized with another leg down that corresponds to the growth of the price.
If the bottom line of the flag is broken, a similar move of 18% can be initiated from the breakdown. This would take the price of XRP to the $1.08 area (which was shown later in the price section).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which creates an oscillator, adds another layer of concern. Between February 6 and March 28, on the 12-hour chart, the price is making a low while the RSI is making a high.
This is a subtle bearish divergence, which usually points to a continuation of the current downtrend rather than a reversal.
Want more information like this? Subscribe to Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto NewsletterHere.
This difference has not yet been confirmed. Confirmation requires the next 12-hour candle to close below $1.35. If instead the price breaks $1.35 and settles above it, the trend is delayed.
The absolute downside is above $1.60, the price point. If the broader market continues to weaken, this setup could prove quick.
However, even without the RSI, the derivatives and findings suggest that the bounce has stopped on a thin surface.
Interest Open, but Hodlers Limit Space
Since the explosion, XRP’s open interest has risen from $737.72 million to $759.21 million, an increase of 2.9%. At the same time, the financing costs have been very low, from -0.011% to -0.003%. That combination means that many long positions are opening in the bounce.
A rise in interest rates during a bounce within a bearish flag is usually a warning rather than a certainty. It means that some distressed traders are betting that they will continue, but if the trend breaks down, the new ambitions will be the fuel to stop.
The real estate market offers the opposite. Changes in Hodler’s position, the number of Glassnode metric tracking and long-term wallets (155 days or more), which settled between March 19 and March 25, about 238 million XRP.
As of March 25, the amount has dropped to 229.78 million XRP, a decrease of about 8.25 million tokens or 3.47%.
Opponents are quietly reducing exposure in the face of The price of XRP shares. When the derivatives are leaning long, and the spotted ones are leaning, the setup favors the bears.
If the hidden divergence of the RSI led by the RSI confirms and corrects the price, the positional support needed to sell the stock is not there. It remains to be seen whether real estate buyers will come back, as they have recently. If this happens, medical treatment can help resolve the problem.
XRP Price Forecast and Test of $1.35
The price of XRP needs a 12-hour closing above $1.35 to delay the bearish setup. Above, $1.37 and $1.40 become resistance levels. However, depending on the shape of the bear flag and the divergence that occurs, any move below the $1.35 level can trigger confirmation.
If the flag is broken and the $1.31-$1.32 neckline zone gives way, a measured move of about 18% will cause a break from the broken zone. This is targeting the region of $1.08, which will represent the lowest level for XRP since the beginning of February 2026.
On top of that, only a move above $1.60 would completely eliminate the bearish order and solve the bottom line that defines the XRP playbook for 2026.
Meanwhile, a retracement of $1.35 separates the delayed bearish setup from the 18% loss to $1.08.
A note XRP May Face 18% Crash, Hidden Bears Show appeared for the first time BeInCrypto.
