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Ahmed Barakat
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Bitcoin is trading below $80,000 as Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report misses the mark. April job growth was just 62,000 versus March’s 172,000. It’s the labor market that is expanding that has kept the Fed optimistic and sending the risk. property higher.
However, the problem comes immediately. Hourly earnings are running at an annualized 3.8%, up from 3.5% previously, an increase in wages that keeps inflation alive and the Federal Reserve’s hands tied a bit.
The $120,000 Bitcoin thesis requires both sides of this equation to agree. A soft labor market fixes one issue. It shows that the Fed can hold or lower rates, raise risk assets and reduce the opportunity cost of owning BTC. But sticky fees block that way.
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The Jobs Miss News for $120,000 Bitcoin
The main points are straightforward. The slow decline in hiring is reinforcing the case that the US stock market is cooling too much for the Federal Reserve to tighten further. Markets are currently pricing in stable interest rates until the year 2026. This soft print may lead to higher expectations, which is the definition of a rate reversal.
For Bitcoin, the transfer process is straightforward. Lower expectations depress the dollar, reduce yields on competing assets, and are already associated with higher BTC levels by group players. The playbook for August 2025 is instructive: the story of paying 22,000 people boosted Bitcoin to over $113,000 as the chance of a reduction came to a certainty.
The technical picture, however, requires respect for where Bitcoin is right now. Alex Kuptsikevich, market analyst at FxPro, explains clearly:
Bitcoin has broken away from its 200-day moving average after entering an overbought zone near the upper limit of its uptrend, with the lower limit sitting near $77,500 and a major low looking to break below $75,000.
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Payroll Growth Is A Change The Market Can’t Ignore
3.8% of the annual payment growth is the speed that is included in today’s data related to Bitcoin. Wages at this level support job growth, the most sticky factor in the CPI basket, and give the Fed acceptable cover to keep interest rates high for a longer period of time regardless of the weak balance sheet.
The transfer process goes wrong for BTC. Continued wage growth feeds service prices, which feeds inflation, which feeds a volatile Currency. A volatile currency means that interest rates remain high, the dollar remains supported, and investments in non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin remain under pressure.
As long as wage growth exceeds 3.5%, the Fed’s dual mandate of job creation and price stability will remain in jeopardy, and this tension will limit the market’s ability to reduce interest rates.
The Coinbase The Bitcoin Premium Index is falling and discounting this week again increasing caution. This index measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase versus an offshore exchange like Binance. Green readings reflect the importance of US institutions; minus indicates the opposite. The $80,000 rally stopped when the money disappeared.
QCP Capital, a Singaporean investment firm, sets the highest risk:
If crude fails to increase in the minutes before the May 20 FOMC meeting, Brent is already above $100 a barrel and forecast markets show a 97% probability that Hormuz will not be normal by May 15, the story of stagflation becomes more difficult to deny.
Stagflation is the worst place for Bitcoin to be vulnerable.
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