Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $65,000 after rising nearly 13% from a late June low near $58,000. However, chain analysis shows that the jump remains a rallying cry and not a definitive recovery.
Unrealized losses are still greater than those experienced in February, and demand for space continues. At this point, the price is below almost every other type of value that is followed on the chain.
On-Chain Analysis Shows Bigger Losses Than February Damage
Glass node Data show that unearned profits fell from about $1.4 trillion at the peak of October 2025. By the end of June, it had fallen to about $400 billion, the lowest reading for the trend.
Unrealized Profit/Loss was also lower in June than at the February crash, despite the same prices both times. The difference reflects the amount that changed hands during the downgrade, raising the value of the stock market.
Unrealized losses were between $200 billion and $300 billion for most of 2026. In contrast, they hovered around zero in 2025. first signs it has already appeared elsewhere.
July brought relief. Unrealized profits returned nearly $500 billion while losses narrowed. However, for the guidance to increase, profits will have to grow beyond its spring near $580 billion.
Futures Sellers Are the Only Buyers Left
The restoration of shareholder value comes with a caveat. CryptoQuant data shows that futures demand has returned to the net in July, while spot demand continues to decline.
The 30-day volume of the futures has increased by about 30,000 to 50,000 BTC this month. However, the increase in April approached 250,000 BTC and boosted the rally to $82,000. Today the appetite for the future is five times less.
The demand for land tells a worse story. The metric has remained negative throughout the year and is now processing around 200,000 BTC per month. Total demand dropped to around 550,000 BTC in early June, the worst reading for 2026.
Bounces built at a non-absorbing level have already been proven to be fragile. A cool print on US inflation helped BTC continue in mid-June to refusebut organic buyers did not return.
The BTC Price Prediction is based on the price of $69,500
Bitcoin trades in three of the four main types of on-chain analysis. The Price List alone at $52,900 remains as a support at the bottom of the market.
The price was the longest period between the Guaranteed Price and the Fair Market in the 2022 market. Every attempt to calculate the price of the Short-Term Holder (STH) from the end of 2025 has failed, including the return of March.
The first real win for the bull is at $69,500, about 6% higher than the current price. Taking it back would bring back the most recent buyers to the bargain, a change that has already been popular the beginning of the recovery phase.
| On-chain model | Dosage | Position versus cost |
|---|---|---|
| Flat rate | $83,500 | 27% higher |
| Real Market Facts | $76,200 | 16% above |
| Short Term Cost Basis | $69,500 | 6% above |
| Price was met | $52,900 | 19% below |
Losing the Confirmed Price of $52,900 would indicate a deep bear market instead. One show it has already pointed to Q4 which could be down around $44,000.
The next Federal Reserve decision could accelerate any move. A retracement of $69,500 would open the way to the $76,200 True Market Mean, while a rejection would lead to another test of $58,000.
A note Why Bitcoin’s Recent Rally Back to $65,000 Is Not Ending appeared for the first time BeInCrypto.
