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- Galaxy Research has reduced the chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year to 30% as bipartisan support is unclear.
- Senators released the first version of the bill, adding ethics rules, enforcement actions and changes to the GENIUS Act.
- Democratic negotiators say the proposal is still failing, leaving little time to get the necessary votes before Congress’ August end.
Galaxy survey went down His likelihood of legislation passing in 2026 has dropped to 30%, down from 50% last month, citing limited legislative time, unresolved political disputes and a growing number of votes in the Senate.
Integrated Planning Leads to Months of Collaborative Negotiation
The newly published 616-page proposal combines cryptocurrency market regulations previously approved by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees into a single package. It also includes a number of improvements that have been discussed, including a new cultural order, legal expansion and changes to the recently approved GENIUS Act.
Some of the most notable changes are the ban on public officials and their spouses to give away or support digital assets while in office, updated protections for software developers and conservative users, a dedicated system of digital asset managers and more anti-fraud controls in governments and public institutions.
CLARITY Act Odds Drop to 30% as Senate Clock Ends
The seven Democratic senators who participated in the negotiations – including Mark Warner, Cory Booker, Ruben Gallego, Raphael Warnock, Angela Alsobrooks, Catherine Cortez Masto and John Hickenlooper – said that the current proposal does not have strong protections in terms of quality, consumer protection, market integrity and economic imbalances, as they continue to negotiate.
Senator Elizabeth Warren separately criticized the bill, saying it would make it easier for criminals and criminals to move money through financial institutions while criticizing the bill’s moral principles.
Calendar Stress Introduces Schedule Conflict
Although negotiators have reached an agreement, time remains a major obstacle.
Republicans officially control 53 seats in the Senate, but Galaxy Research estimates that the party can count on about 50 confidence votes, leaving the leadership dependent on Democratic support to overcome the Senate’s 60 votes.
Majority Leader John Thune has admitted that it is unlikely that the Senate will complete all pending crypto legislation that is expected to keep lawmakers out of Washington, although the administration is expected to begin focus on CLARITY. Analysts believe the window to help enact legislation is closing quickly as debate, amendments and procedural votes must be completed before the August deadline.
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Supporters continue to describe CLARITY as the most comprehensive attempt to establish a system for digital financial markets, covering everything from market structure and stablecoins to deposit and investor protection.
However, as Congress prepares to change its mind on appropriations and election-related requirements after the August recess, experts warn that failure to advance the bill in the coming days could significantly reduce its chances of becoming law this year. Currently, the publication of the consolidated text indicates the progress of the legislative process – but not a guarantee that the lawmakers have the necessary votes to complete it.
