In short
- Market traders predict that the probability of the release of GPT-6 by September 30 is about 78%.
- This has increased on Polymarket and Myriad in the last 24 hours.
- OpenAI has not announced GPT-6 or a release date; its current record, GPT-5.6 Sol, was launched publicly on July 9.
AI users around the world are eagerly awaiting the next release of OpenAI. And if the market forecasts are any indication, we don’t have to wait long for GPT-6.
Market traders are predicting lower GPT-6 readings until September. Polymarket is GPT-6 market they have made about $731,000 in trades – the total value of contracts bought and sold – about $32,000 from the original figure. The contract released to the public by September 30 rose to 77%, while on August 31 it entered the 30s and on August 21 it dropped to 15%.
The odds for September are up from just 14% at the beginning of the month.
Because these are composite “released by” dates—each ending date includes each preceding date—the distinction is important. Traders are not saying that August is impossible; they say that September is now looking much better than the next few weeks.
Get started Thousands of peoplethe prediction market made by the parent company of Decrypt Dastan, the odds of the September release are equal to 77%, up from 64% last week.
A prediction market allows people to buy contracts that pay $1 if an event happens and $0 if it doesn’t, and the price is calculated based on people’s expectations. It’s not a crystal ball, but in the prediction markets, mistakes cost money – so they tend to be right.
As of July 27, OpenAI has not publicly announced GPT-6, its technical structure, or launch date. Its modern counterpart—its most famous example—is GPT-5.6 Solreleased on July 9.
OpenAI has not said anything about what GPT-6 will be. The safest hope is a small chatbot, an independent collaborator: GPT-5.6 already integrates several AI assistants – systems that can organize and perform tasks with digital tools – use programs, and perform long technical tasks, while OpenAI creates a memory that makes the user’s interests and projects fresh in the conversation.
Migrating from GPT-5.6 to GPT-6 may go beyond these aspects, with agents needing less supervision, constant human memory, and completing complex tasks at a lower cost, but OpenAI has not revealed the architecture, size, pricing, or list of GPT-6 features.
The stakes are getting higher at a time when OpenAI news is very busy. The company confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol is a pre-release version breaking Face Hug in cybersecurity monitoring; it also announced 250 new jobs in Dublin, while SoftBank is funding OpenAI through a $40 billion bridging facility – a short-term loan that is used until long-term financing is in place.
Sending another instance will not cause the security event to resolve. But entrepreneurs seem to be betting that OpenAI’s next response to a noisy summer is another launch.
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