Radev’s coalition is leading the exit polls, preparing for a change in the Bulgarian leadership

Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition is leading the exit polls with 37-39% of the vote. The market for Radev to be the next Prime Minister is on 94.8% YES, up from 76% a week ago.

Market performance

Output shows Radev’s contract and a 22-point lead on GERB-SDS, which is at 15%. This has made Radev the prime minister 94.8%. Radev still needs allies to form a government. The small market trades $24,076 in USDC daily volume. It takes $3,810 to move the market 5 points, which means liquid assets. One big move was a 4 point drop yesterday.

Why is it important?

Radev’s leadership will change Bulgaria’s position in Russian politics. This could affect the EU and NATO power if Bulgaria takes a more Eurosceptic position and opposes aid to Ukraine. At the price of YES on 94.8¢the reward is $1 if Radev defends the leadership, a 1.1x return. The remaining risk is whether the coalition talks go well and whether Radev can form a stable government.

For you to see

The announcements of the Coalition and the appointment of Radev are the causes. The swearing in of President Iliana Iotova may confirm market prices. The position of Delyan Peevski and the response of GERB-SDS are very important in the coming days.

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