## Market overview
“Iran’s leadership change by December 31” market is currently at 40.5% of the results of YES, showing a slight increase from 40% in the last 24 hours. The “US x Iran diplomatic meeting” market is showing limited opportunities, and the outcome of YES is expected. The “Reza Pahlavi into Iran” market is not affected, with a probability of 5.5% YES by 30 June.
## Essentials
– The push by Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf to remove Foreign Minister Araghchi shows the power struggle inside Iran. – Market prices indicate increased instability in Iran’s leadership, supporting the YES results for the change of leadership on December 31. – The removal of Araghchi may indicate a decrease in the chances of the upcoming US-Iranian diplomatic meetings.
## News Agency
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are reportedly working to remove foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, according to Iran International. The move is said to be due to dissatisfaction with Araghchi’s performance, which he believes is appropriate, especially for IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi. The move comes amid heightened tensions after the end of the 2026 Iran war, as reformers and hardliners in Iran’s government clash. The IRGC, under the leadership of Vahidi, has been instrumental, disrupting diplomatic efforts by the US and its allies.
## Market Definition
The internal power struggle within Iran coincides with events in which the possibility of a change of leadership increases, markets show moderate sensitivity. Araghchi’s firefight highlights internal divisions and could signal a possible change in Iran’s leadership, raising the possibility that it could happen by the end of the year. This uncertainty appears to be reducing the chances of the imminent US-Iran diplomatic summit, as reflected in market expectations.
## Must Watch
Look for any announcements from the Iranian government or officials regarding Araghchi’s removal. Other statements from the IRGC or other prominent Iranian figures may provide strong insider information. Observers should also keep a close eye on developments in US-Iranian relations, especially any communications from the US State Department or the Iranian Foreign Ministry that may affect the possibility of diplomatic meetings.
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