Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the verge of a major reversal after the cyclical historical signal reappears, raising the risk of a sharp market correction.
According to the analysis of TradingShot he shared in a TradingView post on May 15, Bitcoin has now completed 760 days since the April 2024 halving, a period that coincided with a major market decline.
Previous cycles show that when BTC reached the 760-day mark after the halving, the stock quickly fell, leading to a bear market.
The same patterns appeared after 2012, 2016, and 2020 with a gradual decline, with Bitcoin making a market high before entering the correction zone shortly after the 760-day mark appeared.
This decline later turned into a “downtrend,” where the market established a long-term base before starting a new cycle.
The analysis also highlighted the relationship of Bitcoin with 0.618 Fibonacci time scale between intervals.
Historically, the 760-day mark has appeared before this milestone, except in 2014 when it coincided exactly with it.
In the current cycle, the 0.618 Fibonacci level is expected in October 2026, a period that would coincide with a bear market and which could indicate the next big change for Bitcoin.
The chart pattern also shows that Bitcoin may already be transitioning from an uptrend to the beginning of a correction, with the trend line showing a potential downward trend for a long-term recovery.
Bitcoin network shows increasing power
Interestingly, this opinion comes as Bitcoin’s activity on the chain shows new strength, which has been associated with the end of the local area and a strong return to the market.
In particular, data from Glassnode vector The frame involved on May 15 shows the Bitcoin network growing rapidly approaching the key 60 level, an entry point that initially connects with strong BTC rebounds.
After falling into the “weak activity” sector in the recent correction, the indicator has risen sharply, reflecting the resurgence of user engagement and the importance of the product.
Similar trends in network growth were observed at the end of the bearish periods in 2021, 2022, and 2024, often preceding a strong bullish expansion. A break above the 60 level would reinforce the view that Bitcoin is forming below the bottom and preparing for another move.
Bitcoin price analysis
At this time, a crypto currency has pulled back from recent highs near $82,000 after a mixed session affected by key economic factors, including bond yields, inflation rates, and global trends.
As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $78,362, up about 0.5% over the past 24 hours. On the weekly chart, the stock remains below 3%.
Analysts see $80,000–$83,000 as a key resistance point near the 200-day moving average (MA). A definite break above this level could push Bitcoin to $85,000–$88,000, while a bigger rally could help move it to $90,000–$100,000 this year.
On the downside, immediate support is around $77,500–$78,500, with a floor near $75,000 and $71,000–$73,000 if the sell-off continues. Despite the recent volatility, the broader market remains intact as bulls continue to defend against major downside.
