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Ahmed Barakat
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The S&P 500 exploded to 7,534 on Memorial Day as oil prices eased amid a Middle East slump. The long-awaited agreement between the Trump administration and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent plummeting below $100 a barrel, removing a global threat that had kept institutions on the defensive for weeks.
Spot BTC ETF stock price history Can Bitcoin take advantage of this trend? Or is the downtrend still down?
Note: The best crypto to change your profile
Bitcoin S&P 500 Correlation May Reverse
Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 isn’t just a background calculation. During periods of high risk, the 90-day correlation of Bitcoin with the S&P has repeatedly risen to 0.3-0.5, compared to almost zero or negative readings during periods of risk.
UBS predicted that the S&P 500 will reach 7,500 by the end of 2026 on the back of about 14% of its earnings, about half of that growth driven by AI and technology. A pointer that hits a target prematurely compresses the forward time of any associated attack.
Bitcoin’s price structure is showing a clean retracement of the 200-day EMA, horizontal resistance attached near its all-time high. The engineering setup is unclear after arriving at what appears to be the bottom line. But the question now is how long does the macro run take to pass.
The biggest change you’ll see is structural demand, especially if the Nasdaq market and the ETF space continue to take on current conditions or begin to show exit pressure ahead of the next print release.
The Fall In Oil Prices Is The Disinflationary Shock Crypto Has Been Waiting For
Brent crudeFalling below $100 a barrel isn’t just a relief; is a direct input to the inflation trajectory that has kept the Federal Reserve hawkish and crypto markets stable.
Volatility in Iran’s oil prices drives a positive trend: lower oil prices mean lower CPI expectations, which can be followed by the Fed not being forced to hold. prices indefinitely, the dollar softens, financial conditions ease, so riskier commodities, including Bitcoin, may rise again.
Brent spent weeks above $100 following Iran’s interference in the Strait of Hormuz, a bottleneck that carries about 20% of the world’s oil. AAA data showed national oil prices at a four-year high by Memorial Day.
The surge had the futures market pricing the Fed to raise rates instead of cutting them, which would have been more aggressive on crypto. A framework agreement, even if not completed, changes the prices.
