From escalating military conflicts to systemic breakdowns in the banking and bond markets, financial management is in dire straits. Under normal circumstances, such high levels of adverse effects can lead to severe, long-term depression in high-risk groups.
However, Bitcoin not only weathered these shocks but managed to post consecutive monthly closes. This difference between the deterioration of the world’s most important commodities and the performance of the crypto market reflects the changing nature of psychology and the distribution of resources.
Has Bitcoin Made a Bottom?
A basic principle of stock market analysis is that the market reaches its peak when prices stop responding negatively to bad news. Over the past three months, the macroeconomic environment has brought many challenges. Despite this, the price of Bitcoin successfully printed green candles every month March (+1.81%) and April (+11.87%), and May continues to have a good share (+0.65%).
This sustained strength in the face of a major storm ensures that the sale is over. The stock market in foreign exchange, which shows that the cyclical bottom of Bitcoin has stabilized.
The Macroeconomic Gauntlet: 3 Months of Global Turmoil
To understand the significance of Bitcoin’s high price, it is important to look at the number of negative events that failed to upset the market.
1. Geopolitical War (US and Iran)
The geopolitical landscape has been greatly disrupted after the initiation of direct hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran under the Use Epic Fury. The ensuing conflict severely disrupted the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most difficult oil-locking areas—threatening global trade and energy. Historically, the sudden outbreak of war causes a rapid flight from risky assets to silver and gold. Despite the decline of traditional currencies, Bitcoin has maintained its integrity.
2. Multi-year High Inflation & Energy Crises
Driven by war-related power outages, inflation across OECD countries rose sharply, hitting a multi-year high of 4.0% in March. In the United States, inflation rose by double digits, forcing central banks to reconsider long-term interest rates. Rising commodity prices reduce the purchasing power of consumers and reduce liquidity – yet Bitcoin’s currency remains positive.
3. Global Losses and the Bond Market Crisis
At the same time, the government’s finances were severely damaged. The combination of the financial crisis and the rise in long-term yields has led to instability. Institutional investors face global pressures, which often force them to liquidate their assets in order to manage their income and real estate.
4. Yen Interventions & Carry Trade Dissolution
Financial markets were thrown into a frenzy as the Bank of Japan spent nearly ¥10 trillion in aggressive action to stabilize the rapidly depreciating Yen. The rise in Japanese yields shook the foundations of the global “carry trade”, causing systemic instability in global financial markets.
5. Too much FUD
Adding to the broader challenges, the crypto-specific issue has been plagued by Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) about the rapid progress in quantum computing. Sensationalist reports have suggested that the increased possibility could compromise Bitcoin’s SHA-256 encryption protocol, threatening the integrity of the network.
Why Bitcoin Hasn’t Crashed Yet
Structural characteristics observed in crypto story cycle shows historical economic events: peak capitulation absorption.
The stock market gets a big change when the number of sellers is exhausted. At this point, even the biggest recession is failing to cause a decline in technology because all those who want to participate in the panic have already exited the market.
Rather than acting as a speculative technology, Bitcoin is increasingly acting as a bulwark against fiat denigration, credit crunch, and global isolation. When the stability of major fiat currencies (such as the Yen or the Euro) is questioned, or when banks face contagion, the immutable and political infrastructure of Bitcoin transforms into another safe haven.
Data Analysis: Analyzing Monthly Returns
A look at monthly returns shows the 2026 price challenges:
| A year | January | February | March | April | Mother |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.17% | -14.94% | +1.81% | + 11.87% | +0.65% |
| 2025 | +9.29% | -17.39% | -2.30% | + 14.08% | + 10.99% |
| 2024 | +0.62% | + 43.55% | + 16.81% | -14.76% | + 11.07% |
The corrections that occurred in January (-10.17%) and February (-14.94%) effectively washed away the late cycle strength and speculative selling positions. When geopolitical and inflationary shocks appeared in March, the market did not have the buyers it needed to keep prices low. The subsequent recovery + 11.87% in April, under the war period, is a clear proof of the accumulation of institutions.
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