The July 4th deadline to push the crypto market legislation through the Senate is now looking unlikely, according to Galaxy Digital’s head of research.
Senate Calendar Creates Bottleneck
Alex Thorn updated his opportunity Estimates for the CLARITY Act that passed in 2026 went from 75% to 60%, citing a Senate system that has become increasingly competitive.
Next week’s agenda is expected to be dominated by FISA-related businesses following the failed reauthorization vote, leaving little room for crypto legislation to move forward.
Thorn said the obstacle is no longer political will — support for the bill has not fallen. The problem is time.
I just sent this letter to clients and reduced my 2026 chance of getting this passage right from 75% immediately to 60% today.
I said in May that the senate calendar was one of the biggest problems, and the picture has gotten worse. last night the FISA reauth vote failed, so now the next… pic.twitter.com/2EcxMb3Hwh
Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) June 5, 2026
Unresolved Issues Increase Delay
Two sticking points remain on the table: the regulatory and non-financial legislation that accompanies the bill. Nothing has been resolved, and the lack of progress on both sides has made the way forward difficult.
Although it has been dropped, Thorn said he remains optimistic about the chances of the bill passing — although he cautioned that the timeline is now longer than many thought.
The CLARITY Act is known to be the most important crypto bill currently before Congress. Its main goal is to resolve a long-running dispute between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over who controls digital content.
Under the plan, the so-called stocks will fall under the supervision of the CFTC, while the securities that would have remained with the SEC – a difference that will change the way the exchange works and what is required to comply with crypto services.
Supporters say federal clarity on those limits would reduce regulatory uncertainty and prevent crypto development from moving abroad.
A window that can be closed
Senator Cynthia Lummis has previously referred to July 4 as a banner to introduce market-related legislation in the Senate.
Thorn’s revised image places a threat on that unstable target. His analysis points to limitations, not changes in how lawmakers view the bill.
For crypto stakeholders who are waiting for regulatory certainty, the revised proposal represents a longer path towards clearer regulation.
Image taken from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
