Important requirements
- Bitcoin remains vulnerable as a hawkish Federal Reserve policy, rising Treasury yields, and inconsistent demand for ETFs continue to dampen investor sentiment.
- With BTC trading under volatile keys and lacking buying power, the long-term bias remains.
Bitcoin (BTC) remained under pressure on Thursday, trading below the $64,000 level as investors responded to a hawkish message from the US Federal Reserve and mixed institutional signals.
Leading interest rates continue to struggle with interest rates, with risk appetite easing in financial markets after the Fed signaled a firmer policy stance despite keeping interest rates unchanged.
The Federal Reserve keeps rates steady but adopts a hawkish tone
The US Federal Reserve left its interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at its latest policy meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.
Although the decision was widely expected, markets focused on the Fed’s guidance and economic reforms.
The central bank removed language suggesting a bias towards easing and instead signaled support for longer-term interest rates. Policymakers now plan for the federal funds rate to end the year at 3.8%, up from the 3.4% that was proposed in March.
The revised outlook prompted traders to raise expectations for monetary policy, with markets now discounting around 85% of December’s inflation rate.
As a result, US Treasury yields and the US dollar rose, reducing demand for less risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin institutional demand remains mixed, offering little support for a sustained recovery.
According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded an outflow of $82.20 million on Wednesday, as follows:
The volatility of the trend, combined with a slight bias, suggests that institutional investors will remain cautious amid economic uncertainty.
If ETF outflows continue or increase in the coming quarters, Bitcoin may face further challenges.
Bitcoin price outlook: Break of support indicates weakness
Recent price action suggests that Bitcoin’s recovery from oversold assets may be driven more by seller fatigue than by repurchasing.
Bitcoin continues to trade within a short-term structure and remains below several key moving averages.
BTC is currently trading below the 50-day EMA at $70,042, the 100-day EMA at $72,839, and the 200-day EMA at $78,174.
Failure to retrace these levels reinforces the downside and highlights continued oversold.
Additionally, support that was previously broken near $73,833 has now turned into a resistance zone.
Technical indicators continue to be cautious. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains below 50, indicating a bullish trend without reaching oversold conditions.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is still slightly positive, indicating that the recent pullback may be a correction within the broader trend rather than the start of a sustained recovery.
If Bitcoin tries to recover, traders will focus on several areas of resistance. The first major resistance at $64,004 could trigger major resistance patterns at $70,042 – the 50-day EMA.
A move above these levels should significantly improve the technical outlook.
