Bitcoin ‘Resilient’ After Hawkish Fed, But No ‘Return of Demand’: Analysts

Bitcoin it’s grinding sideways, and analysts looking at it largely agree on the problem: sellers are shrinking, but buyers aren’t back.

The leading cryptocurrency changed hands around $64,700 on Monday, up by 0.8% on the day but down almost 13% on the last month and almost 50% below the record of $126,080 set in October, on CoinGecko data.

Crypto proved “stronger than we expected” in the face of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s. hawkish at firstCoinShares head of research James Butterfill he said On Friday, Bitcoin fell 1.6% compared to the S&P 500’s 1.2% and the Nasdaq’s 1.3%. Although “not very expensive in detail,” the analyst admitted, “it is stronger than many expected” in the face of the Fed’s hawkish reforms and a retreat from the policy indicator.

“Real high expectations are still very difficult for the economy, so the initial hawkish interpretation of the market was understandable,” said Butterfill, but he pointed to a larger set-up, with persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and the Fed’s steady approach to building Bitcoin’s long-term funding case. “In other words, the short-term appeal is difficult, but Bitcoin’s status as an alternative currency is not going away,” he added.

Bitcoin’s performance at the start of Warsh was telling, said Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey. The small drop indicates that the pressure on the market has “almost ended, rather than rebounded,” he said, adding that the market is rebuilding its readings on the Fed as Warsh pulls back from the front. For any meeting to be normal, Mr. Sun argued, two things must coincide: to restore appetite for risk and “cooperation from long-term prices.” He sees Bitcoin returning to the stock market for macro liquidity, with the emergence of ETFs, oil prices, and Treasury longs providing the opposite to watch.

The price action seems to be less than a stop, said Dean Chen, Bitunix analyst. The ETF continues to report distributions, he said, with US funds dropping about $90.7 million on June 18 and about $4 billion last month. Weekly traffic has dropped to several hundred million, at SoSoValue articlesBut Bitcoin has refused to break up, instead cutting into different types as market trends dictate.

Chen showed a downward sloping map, where about $1.3 billion in the long-term close was collected near $61,900 versus about $870 million in the short-term close at $64,800, and said the failure to fall in this area showed “sustainable strength based on volatility.” With neutral “smart money,” he said, Bitcoin is living in a “redistributed sector driven by diversity.”

Resources could last for several weeks, said Stephen Wundke, director of strategy and finance at Algoz Technologies. He pointed to the US Clarity Act The vote is expected on July 4, warning that a failure could push the stock market into the fourth quarter, and the US inflation, which is expected to cool down two to three months after the Iran deal. Demand for ETFs has dropped from $20 billion in 2025 to $3.2 billion in 2026, with Bitcoin down nearly 26% year-on-year and a basket of major indices down nearly 50%. “This may be low,” Wundke said, “but we can only jump for a while.”

Under the tree, owners are digging in instead of going out. In the past 90 days, Bitcoin was the top exchange going to Chainflip, with $239 million in volume, with owners increasingly borrowing their money instead of selling it, said protocol trading director Peter Smedas. A recurring theme among Bitcoin holders at the recent BTC Prague conference, he said, “is that they want money against their BTC, not derivatives.”

A short-term test neared Friday, when Wundke announced that $10.9 billion worth of Bitcoin options would expire, potentially disrupting the market’s search for direction. In the prediction market Thousands of peopleof DecryptDastan’s parent company, entrepreneurs who have confused the prospects of Bitcoin, are now investing in opportunities down to $55,000 at 70%, up 5% from last week.