There have been three simultaneous events in Bitcoin that have happened together under any bear market in the history of this commodity. In 2015, 2019, 2022 and now, in the summer of 2026.
The monthly RSI has just reached the second lowest level in 17 years. Bitcoin miners have won, the indicator has written down at every level without exception. And for the first time this cycle, more than half of all Bitcoin in existence is underwater. Three signs, one reconciliation. The last time they lined up like this, the price that followed changed the financial lives of everyone who was paying attention.
Why Bitcoin Crashed While Stocks Rose
The confusion that many entrepreneurs feel right now is understandable. The stock market has been posting record highs as Bitcoin shed 52% from its eight-month peak. If everything is dangerous, how is it going differently?
The answer is yes Bitcoin does not always follow stocks. It runs on its own every four years, a cycle that has been repeated since the product was created. Currently, stocks are at the end of a bull market while Bitcoin is at the end of a bear market. All these things are true at the same time.
The selloff has two engines. The first is the mechanical cycle, where the slow-down point can drop and sentiment collapses and everyone says Bitcoin is dead. It happens all the time. The second engine is the one that has made this decline even deeper than in the past: artificial intelligence. Since April, memory chip ETFs have shed $12.7 billion while Bitcoin ETFs have bled more than $2 billion. That is the black and white circle. People sold Bitcoin to buy AI stocks. Capital that circulates abroad flows back.
Six Signs Pointing Down
Chain data tells a story that value alone does not. The MVRV-Z score is sitting at 0.41, within the reserve range. Long-term holders, the wallets that have survived every previous bear market, have just recorded their highest 30-day high. Even the most patient, savvy investors in these currencies are buying more aggressively right now than at any other time in Bitcoin history.
Bitcoin swept the lows below the 200-week low moving around $60,000 and closed the week behind it. Sweeping and recycling, combined with a 12% drop rate, is a basic book quality under construction.
Macro Setup Getting Started Compatibility
The war in Iran is said to be ending. Oil has fallen 25% in one month. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. The war was the primary engine behind inflation, and as energy prices fall, inflation falls. When inflation falls, inflation expectations shift to lower expectations. And the moment the safe haven economy stops giving real returns, capital comes flooding into Bitcoin.
The US government cannot service its debt at current rates forever. The math ultimately leads to lower rates, not because the Fed chooses to be generous but because the math leaves no other choice. When this happens, the macro vice that has forced Bitcoin for eight months.
Value Objectives
Bitcoin at $150,000 by this time next year. Bitcoin at $215,000 at the end of the next cycle. These are targets based on the macro setup, on-chain content and the history of any previous recoveries.
Can there be one more leg to take down? Absolutely. About 900 days after the halving is when previous bear markets bottomed out, pointing to October or November. If Bitcoin loses $59,000 at the weekly close, the next real point will be between $50,000. In the worst-case scenario of 2022, models in the $40,000 range are possible.
But here there is an asymmetry. Bitcoin is already down 51% from its peak. Even in a bearish state, the downside from here is limited. The ride, based on any early round, is not.
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