One Wall Street analyst also expressed caution Microsoft (NASDAQ: Image of MSFT), maintaining the price target of $415 despite the recent changes it has seen property drop to more than 20% in 2026.
In a June 23 research update, Stifel analyst Brad Reback reiterated his ‘Hold’ rating on Microsoft stock and left his target price unchanged at $415. Based on Microsoft’s share price of $367, that target implies a potential 13%.
The change comes as Microsoft announced a 20-year energy deal with Chevron linked to Project Kilby, an initiative designed to help increase the company’s energy efficiency as demand for AI-related areas grows.
According to expert opinion, Stifel considers the timing of this project very carefully. Although the first delivery of electricity is expected in 2028, the company believes that date represents an early milestone.
Reback also pointed out that Project Kilby is still in the early stages of construction and is still awaiting the Final Investment Decision, which is expected by the end of 2026.
The project must also move forward with planning, environmental assessment, and permitting procedures before construction begins.
As a result, Stifel sees execution by controls Risks that could extend beyond expectations, prompting the company to maintain a neutral outlook on Microsoft shares.
Although Stifel remains on the sidelines with a ‘Hold’ vote, Wall Street’s sentiment about Microsoft remains positive.
Wall Street is bullish on MSFT stock
Based on joint research data from TipRanksOf the 36 Wall Street analysts currently covering Microsoft, 35 assign a ‘Buy’ rating and one recommends a ‘Hold’. No analysts rate the stock as a ‘Sell’.
The forecast for Microsoft stock is $562.56, which means about 53% upside from recent trading. Expert estimates range from $412.67 to $680.
While Stifel’s target of $415 is one of the most conservative forecasts on Wall Street, the company’s latest filings show that uncertainty about the timing and execution of Microsoft’s strong long-term plans remains a key factor in its cautious approach.
