Trump’s Quantum Push Wins Praise, But Experts Warn Bitcoin Is Not Ready

President Donald Trump’s executive order accelerating the federal government’s transition to post-quantum cryptography by 2031 is drawing support and criticism from analysts who say Washington is changing its plans to accommodate the rapidly evolving quantum revolution.

The the main rules signed by Trump on Monday to move the federal deadline to adopt post-quantum cryptography from 2035 to 2031 and comes as governments, technology companies, and cryptocurrency developers increase efforts to prepare for future quantum threats.

“It is difficult to predict the exact date of a cryptographically related quantum computer because there are many unknowns, but anywhere between three and 10 years is reliable,” Dr. Stefan Leichenauer, vice president of engineering and chief scientist at SandboxAQ, said. Decrypt. “The important thing is that the results of (cryptographically relevant quantum computers) are so impressive that we have to be prepared even for wild predictions.”

At the same time, he warned that organizations may already be behind in trying to move to post-quantum cryptography.

“We’re moving very quickly towards the (post-quantum computing) migration, but because of the long transition times for many systems, we’re probably already behind,” Leichenauer said. “(Post-quantum computing) migration is a multi-year process, and (cryptographically relevant quantum computer) may appear before we finish.”

Major regulations should be “awakening,” he added, calling quantum security more important.

According to Alex Pruden, CEO of quantum security firm Project Eleventhe White House’s renovation schedule was delayed.

“There have been many rumors about the progress of quantum computing, and some countries have changed their timing, recently. France,” said Pruden Decrypt. “When the law came out, I think what I’m doing was good, it’s time.”

Pruden said the 2028 target is ambitious but no longer achievable. Project Eleven estimates a 50% chance of having the necessary computers by 2033, and a 10% chance by 2030.

“I think if you had asked me that question two years ago, I would have said there was a 0% chance,” Pruden said. “Now I think there is a physical advantage.”

Paul Stimers, partner at Holland & Knight and Executive Director of Quantum Industry Coalitionhe said the regulatory laws reflect a growing consensus time for cryptographically quantum computing is in decline.

“Quantum industry trends will begin to evolve in 2028-2030,” said Stimers. Decrypt. But he cautioned that public simulations may not hold true for quantum computing programs in the United States or abroad.

He also cited the recent concern that adversaries are already collecting encrypted data in anticipation of future capabilities.

“Because adversaries are already stealing encrypted data and storing it until they can cryptographically encode it, the threat has happened and the time to address it is now,” he said. “Moving to post-quantum encryption and long-term cybersecurity will take time.

Stimer said the union members have responded to the government’s orders, saying they are focusing on production, marketing, shipping, and corporate engagement and research. He also said that the management system of the system is not a good one.

Not everyone felt that the officials were a sign that the government was solving the problem. Some critics on social media they argued the acceleration of post-quantum cryptography is slow because secret data is already being collected and stored in the hope that future computers can crack it.

Others, including quantum physicists Anastasia MarchenkovaHe said that the messages of the “quantum dominance” movement are helping to raise awareness and attract investment, but they can also create unrealistic expectations about how the industry can deliver practical results.

“Achieving ‘quantum’ in international negotiations helps a lot – budget, interest, new talent on the way – and that’s what makes us go from research to commercialization and create real businesses with pick-and-shovels,” said Marchenkova. Decrypt. “But planning is fun and not fun: being brave, moving, deploying security, not just making up a case for breaching encryption or building more computers,” he said.

“If the deadlines go down – and some will – the vaporware crowd will grow,” he added. “And now that there are more public accounting companies, these announcements move the market a lot, although we don’t know what the results will be.”

Despite this, Mr. Marchenkova said there is nothing wrong with the main rules.

“The ‘how’ is what’s missing,” he said. “Now we have a number of valid post-quantum algorithms and the real confusion of where to use them, and where they are best.

Christopher Tam, president and chief innovation officer at Concept of the company BTQ TechnologiesHe said the administration’s 2031 deadline for federal agencies to move to post-quantum cryptography remains elusive due to industry trends and potential risks from quantum computing.

“I should have done it sooner,” said Tam Decryptnoting that companies, including Google, have already implemented it 2029 Post-quantum migration targets. “It seems strange that the federal government will be behind the industry in two years.”

Tam also questioned the scope of the plan, saying it focuses on government systems while leaving a large part of the economy and more space for companies out of reach.

At the same time, he said the administration deserves credit for integrating quantum computing and cybersecurity into separate but complementary laws.

“If there is more and more computer research progress and more and more development, then it creates a problem or risk of privacy attacks,” Tam said. “That’s why we saw the two laws go hand in hand.”

For cryptocurrencies, however, Tam said the situation is more complicated. Although regulators can affect banks and other financial institutions, established networks such as Bitcoin it cannot be controlled through managerial actions.

“You can’t issue a general directive for Bitcoin,” he said. “No one can answer that.”

Bitcoin is facing a convergence problem

The major regulations come as the cryptocurrency industry is testing how to transition to non-quantum security.

In March, BTQ Technologies he started Bitcoin experimental network based on the concept of quantum-resistance BIP-360. In April, the producers published BIP-361an idea that could stop Bitcoin in vulnerable addresses if owners fail to migrate to other non-quantitative assets, where other network developers prefer. Stars and Algorand published routes based on quantum-resistant cryptography.

Pruden said that the awareness of this issue has increased significantly in the last year, but the progress in solving the problems remains limited, because, unlike most blockchain networks, Bitcoin does not have a foundation or a governing body that can lead the migration process. As a result, any change would require cooperation between developers, miners, exchanges, managers, and major shareholders.

“Awareness in people’s minds is where it needs to be,” Pruden said. “Now there’s a question of what’s going on.”